在重大疫情下基于累积前景理论的在线教学软件平台选择预测研究  

The Prediction for E-Learning Platform Selecting Based on a Cumulative Prospect Theory Under a Major Epidemic Situation

作　　者：徐捷[1] 吕建 李延来 XU Jie;LYU Jian;LI Yanlai(School of Software,Northeastern University,Shenyang Liaoning 110004,China;School of Economics and Management,Yanshan University,Qinhuangdao Hebei 066004,China;Business School,Liaoning University,Shenyang Liaoning 110136,China)

机构地区：[1]东北大学软件学院,辽宁沈阳110004 [2]燕山大学经济管理学院,河北秦皇岛066004 [3]辽宁大学商学院,辽宁沈阳110136

出　　处：《江西师范大学学报（自然科学版）》2021年第6期652-660,共9页Journal of Jiangxi Normal University(Natural Science Edition)

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(7187215)资助项目.

摘　　要：在重大疫情背景下,在线会议软件平台喷涌而出,对用户选择行为的合理预测有利于开发商进行合理的资源配置.该文针对重大疫情背景下的在线教学软件平台选择问题,提出一种基于累积前景理论的考虑多个参考点的在线教学软件平台选择预测方法.首先,该方法全面考虑决策者的参考点依赖、风险偏好和风险规避等心理特征,将决策者所给出的在不同疫情演变状态下的多个期望作为相应的参考点;其次,根据累积前景理论,构建在线教学软件平台对应于各个属性的益损决策矩阵和前景决策矩阵;最后,运用主观的决策权重,计算各个在线教学备选软件平台的累积前景值,并对其进行优先排序.通过算例验证了所提方法的有效性,通过对比分析表明该方法的优越性.该方法考虑了决策者的心理特征,更加符合真实的在线教学软件平台的选择决策过程,对决策者具有启示意义.E-learning platforms have sprung up under a major epidemic,the appropriate prediction of selecting of E-learning platform makes contributions to desirable resource allocation of developers.Thus,the selecting prediction method based on cumulative prospect theory is proposed considering multiple reference points to solve E-learning platform selection problems with multiple decision makers′aspirations and multiple-format decision information under a major epidemicsituation.Firstly,the method comprehensively considers the psychological characteristics of decision makers,such as reference dependence,risk seeking and risk aversion,the aspirations of decision makersconcerning different evolving states of the epidemic are regarded as the reference points.Secondly,by the cumulative prospect theory,the decision matrixes of gains or losses and prospect decision matrixes for each attribute are constructed.Finally,the cumulative prospect value of each E-learning platform is calculated and ranked based on subjective decision weights.A numerical example is used to verify the effectiveness of the proposed method,and the contrastive analysis is employed to prove the superiority of this method.This method takes into psychological behavior of decision makers,which is more in line with the practical evaluation process of E-learning platform and has crucial implications for decision makers.

关 键 词：累积前景理论 多种决策信息 多个参考点 疫情 在线教学软件平台选择预测 

分 类 号：C934[经济管理—管理学] N949[自然科学总论—系统科学]