新冠疫情冲击下的中印经贸合作——基于产业链重构视角  

Sino-Indian Economic and Trade Cooperation under the Impact of the Covid-19 from the Perspective of the Reconstruction of Industrial Chain

作　　者：王智勇 胡祎黎 Wang Zhiyong;Hu Yili

机构地区：[1]云南财经大学教务处 [2]云南财经大学经济学院 [3]云南财经大学国际工商学院

出　　处：《印度洋经济体研究》2022年第1期101-125,155,156,共27页Indian Ocean Economic and Political Review

基　　金：云南省哲学社会科学规划项目“云南沿边自由贸易试验区承接东部劳动密集型产业转移的对策研究”(项目编号:YB20211024)的阶段性成果。

摘　　要：边界纠纷与新冠疫情叠加,加剧了印度强制与中国脱钩的风险,然而疫情冲击下全球价值链重构的加速也为改善中印贸易发展不平衡、增强中印经贸合作创造了契机。中印经济的互补性、两国要素禀赋优势的演变、经济发展动能的释放和贸易开放度的提升,以及印度短期内替代中国供应链的不可行和印度嵌入中国价值链较深,都将降低政治强制脱钩对中印经贸合作产生的冲击。而新冠疫情冲击下,中印两国产业链重构将进一步增强两国的经贸合作:中国率先从疫情中恢复、中国利用技术优势推行复杂价值链贸易模式以及两国数字贸易的发展,增强了两国经贸合作的韧性、弹性和价值创造。与此同时,印度分散供应链、中印在低端产业链的争夺给中印经贸合作带来了挑战。综合来看,中印产业链重构降低了中印边境冲突、疫情冲击叠加对中印经贸合作产生的负面影响。新冠疫情冲击下,要实现中印经贸合作的提升,需完善多边合作机制、依托科技创新稳固产业链、健全生产性服务体系、加快数字资本积累、健全数字产业贸易规则。因此,中国需加大科技创新,逐步有序扩大服务业开放,深化制度建设,积极参与国际合作。The border dispute and COVID-19 intensified the risk of India's decoupling from China.However,the acceleration of the reconstruction of global value chain created the opportunity to reduce the trade imbalance between China and India,and enhance Sino-Indian trade cooperation.The economic complementarity between China and India,the evolution of the factor endowment advantages of the two countries and the release of motion of economic development,the improvement of trade openness,the infeasibility of Indian replacement for China s supply chain in the short term,and India's deep embedding in China s value chain will reduce the impact of politically forced decoupling on Sino-India trade cooperation.Under the impact of COVID-19,the reconstruction of the industrial chain will further enhance the trade cooperation between the two countries:China took the lead in recovering from the epidemic,China used the technological advantages to promote the complex value chain trade and the digital trade development,which enhanced the toughness,flexibility and value creation of bilateral trade cooperation.Meanwhile,India's decentralized supply chain and the competition between China and India in the low-end industrial chain have brought challenges to Sino-India trade cooperation.Overall,the promotion of industrial chain trade through the reconstruction has reduced the negative impact of Sino-India border conflict and pandemic on Sino-India trade cooperation.Under the impact of COVID-19,in order to improve the Sino-India trade cooperation,we need to improve the multilateral cooperation mechanism,stabilize the industrial chain relying on scientific and technological innovation,improve the productive service system,accelerate the accumulation of digital capital and improve the rules of trade of digital industry.Therefore,China needs to increase scientific and technological innovation,gradually and orderly expand the opening of the service industry,deepen institution construction,and actively participate in international cooperation.

关 键 词：中印经贸合作 全球价值链重构 脱钩风险 产业链贸易 

分 类 号：F125[经济管理—世界经济] F135.1