北方农牧交错带气候变化对粮草轮作生产的影响  

Investigating the impacts of climate change on the production of crop and forage rotational fields in the agro-pastoral interlaced zone in Northern-China

作　　者：杨轩 贾鹏飞 侯青青 朱敏 Yang Xuan;Jia Pengfei;Hou Qingqing;Zhu Min(Shanxi Agricultural University,Grass industry college,Taigu 030801,China)

机构地区：[1]山西农业大学草业学院,山西太谷030801

出　　处：《山西农业大学学报（自然科学版）》2022年第1期77-89,共13页Journal of Shanxi Agricultural University(Natural Science Edition)

基　　金：山西重点研发计划(201903D211012);山西农业大学科技创新基金项目(2020BQ26);国家自然科学基金青年科学基金项目(32001404);山西省优秀博士来晋工作奖励资金科研项目(SXYBKY2019019)。

摘　　要：[目的]结合大田试验与计算机模型技术,于我国北方农牧交错带明确建立粮草轮作模式在产量、耗水量与水分利用效率,和传统粮食生产模式的差异;阐明气候变化条件下的粮草轮作模式和粮食生产模式以上组分的变化规律,探明该地区粮-饲耦合系统的气候变化适应力。[方法]基于山西右玉黄土高原草地生态系统定位观测研究站的田间试验数据对作物模型APISM(Agricultural Production Systems Simulator)进行校准和验证,结合气象数据生产工具ACSGTR模拟、分析研究点基准情景(1980-2009年)及未来情景(世纪中期2040-2069年、世纪后期2070-2099年)多种种植模式的产量,耗水量(ET)和水分利用效率(Water Use Efficiency,WUE)变化。[结果]APSIM模型对研究区玉米(Zea mays L.)、马铃薯(Solanum tuberosum L.)、饲用燕麦(Avena sativa L.)和秣食豆(Glycine max L.)生产模拟的精度较高,归一化均方根误差(NRMSE)仅为6.25%~15.48%。情景模拟中,随着模拟区间内升温度与降水提高,各作物产量均有所提高,其中秣食豆产量增幅最高,达21.90%~36.07%,马铃薯次之,达15.71%~23.02%。ET方面,马铃薯在2040-2079年、2060-2099年情景下ET相对基准情景增加11.56%~20.83%,幅度最大。WUE方面,2040-2079年、2060-2099年情景下玉米、饲用燕麦与秣食豆WUE提高幅度较大,平均为16.50%、12.10%和23.13%(P<0.05)。[结论]APSIM于北方农牧交错带地区可较准确模拟几种主要作物的生产。相较基准情景,2040-2069年、2070-2099年情景下各作物产量,ET和WUE均有提升趋势。由于较高的产量与WUE,可认为玉米-饲用燕麦轮作、拥有较高生产力的同时也具备较好的气候适应性;而马铃薯-玉米轮作相对其它轮作模式的耗水量更高但产量变化不显著,适宜中短期旱作生产以保障食物安全;马铃薯与饲用燕麦、秣食豆轮作和玉米-燕麦轮作模式耗水量较低,更适宜恢复土壤水分。研究结果可充实相近�[Objective]This study was conducted in the agro-pastoral interlaced zone in Northern-China using the combination of field trials and computer simulated model.It was aimed to investigate(i)the advantages of crop-forage rotation on yield,evapotranspiration(ET)and water use efficiency(WUE)compared with the traditional cereal production pattern;(ii)the reliability and consistency of the validated Agricultural Production Systems Simulator(APSIM)on simulating the crop production in the study area;(iii)the effects of climate change on the crop-forage rotational production pattern.[Methods]We validated several APSIM modules based on the field trial results conducted in Youyu Loess Plateau Grassland Ecosystem Research Station of Shanxi Province,then carried out the scenario analysis to analyze yield variation,ET and WUE based on a baseline scenario(1980-2009)and projected future climate scenario(including mid-century 2040-2069 and end-century 2070-2099)using a tool of“AgMIP Climate Scenario Generation Tools with R”(ACSGTR).[Results]APSIM model produced high accuracy for the production simulation of maize(Zea mays L.),potato(Solanum tuberosum L.),forage oats(Avena sativa L.)and feed soybean(Glycine max L.).The values of NRMSE(Normalized Root Mean Squared Error)were 6.25%-15.48%.In the scenario simulation,with the increase of air temperature and precipitation within the projected scenarios,the yield of all four crops was improved,among which the yield of feed soybean increased the most,reaching up to 21.90%-36.07%,followed by potato reaching to 15.71%-23.02%.The ET of potatoes in the 2040-2079 and 2070-2099 scenario increased by 11.56%-20.83%,which was the highest among four crops.In the same scenario,the WUE of maize,forage oats and feed soybean was averagely improved by 16.50%,12.10%and 23.13%,respectively,compared to baseline data.[Conclusion]The validated APSIM model could accurately simulate the productions of main crop and forage in the agro-pastoral interlaced zone in Northern-China.Compared with the baseline sce

关 键 词：农牧交错带 气候变化 粮草轮作 作物产量 APSIM 

分 类 号：S3[农业科学—农艺学]