面向2050年我国农业发展愿景与对策研究  

Development Visions and Policies of China’s Agriculture by 2050

作　　者：黄季焜[1] 胡瑞法[2] 易红梅[1] 盛誉 王金霞[1] 宝明涛 刘旭[4] Huang Jikun;Hu Ruifa;Yi Hongmei;Sheng Yu;Wang Jinxia;Bao Mingtao;Liu Xu(China Center for Agricultural Policy,Peking University,Beijing 100871,China;School of Management and Economics,Beijing Institute of Technology,Beijing 100081,China;Center for Strategic Studies,Chinese Academy of Engineering,Beijing 100088,China;Institute of Crop Sciences,Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences,Beijing 100081,China)

机构地区：[1]北京大学中国农业政策研究中心,北京100871 [2]北京理工大学管理与经济学院,北京100081 [3]中国工程院战略咨询中心,北京100088 [4]中国农业科学院作物科学研究所,北京100081

出　　处：《中国工程科学》2022年第1期11-19,共9页Strategic Study of CAE

基　　金：中国工程院咨询项目“中国农业发展战略研究2050”(2018-ZD-07)。

摘　　要：我国要达到全体国民的共同富裕,必须实现农业与工业及服务业劳动生产率的趋同,而目前农业劳动生产率尚不到工业服务业的1/3。本文在分析农业发展形势的基础上认为,为了保障国家粮食安全,农业应通过内部分工来大幅提升劳动生产率;养殖业应向规模化、现代化转变,种植业需向"二八格局"转变(即20%的大农生产80%的农产品并贡献20%的增加值、80%的小农生产20%的农产品并贡献80%的增加值),大农主要生产粮食等大宗农产品以保障粮食安全,小农主要发展高值农业以保障收入增长。这既是未来我国农业发展的必然趋势,也是符合国情的理想愿景。鉴于提升农业劳动生产率、加快农业转型任务的艰巨性,管理部门应适时进行重大战略部署,出台对应保障与激励措施;尤其需要建成针对大农与小农的政策支持体系、加快城乡融合发展进程、健全土地流转市场,完善创新型农业科技、人才培育体系,建立适应农业全面现代化要求的组织保障体系。To achieve common prosperity, we need to equalize the labor productivity in agriculture with that in other non-agricultural sectors. China’s agricultural labor productivity is less than 1/3 of that in the manufacturing and service industries. Our analysis on the trend of agricultural development suggests that it is essential to raise the agricultural labor productivity through internal labor division to ensure national food security. The breeding industry needs to transform toward scaled and modernized development and the planting industry needs to change to a new pattern—20% of large-scale farmers produce 80% of agricultural products or contribute 20% of added value while 80% of small-scale farmers produce 20% of agricultural products or contribute 80% of added value. Large-scale farmers mainly produce bulk agricultural products including grain to ensure food security while small-scale farmers develop highvalue agriculture to ensure income growth. Eventually, the labor productivity of large-and small-scale farmers will converge to achieve common prosperity, which is inevitable for China’s agricultural development and is an ideal vision in line with national realities.However, the task of transforming to the new pattern is arduous, and the government needs to make major strategic deployments and introduce corresponding safeguards and incentive measures. Particularly, it is necessary to establish a policy support system for large-and small-scale farmers, accelerate the progress of urban-rural integrated development, improve the land transfer markets,optimize the innovative system of agricultural science and technology as well as the human capacity building system, and establish an organizational guarantee system to realize agricultural modernization.

关 键 词：未来农业 种植业 二八格局 农业劳动生产率 

分 类 号：F32[经济管理—产业经济]