基于集中度和圆形分布法分析甘肃省人间布氏菌病季节性特征  

Analysis of seasonal characteristics of human brucellosis in Gansu Province based on the concentration and circular distribution method

作　　者：董欢欢 刘兴荣[1] DONG Huan-huan;LIU Xing-rong(School of Public Health,Lanzhou University,Lanzhou,Gansu 730000,China)

机构地区：[1]兰州大学公共卫生学院,兰州730000

出　　处：《中华疾病控制杂志》2022年第2期227-231,共5页Chinese Journal of Disease Control & Prevention

基　　金：甘肃省社科规划重点招标课题(20ZD017);兰州大学“一带一路”专项经费资助项目(2018年)。

摘　　要：目的分析甘肃省人间布氏菌病的季节性特征,为布氏菌病防控提供参考依据。方法收集整理2011-2019年甘肃省人间布氏菌病的逐月发病数据,运用集中度和圆形分布法分析甘肃省人间布氏菌病的季节性特征。结果 2011-2019年甘肃省累计报告人间布氏菌病11 207例,无死亡病例,发病率从0.196/10万(2011年)增长到6.291/10万(2017年);2011-2019年合计M=0.183,总体季节性较差,2012年的M=0.357、2013年的M=0.342、2014年的M=0.333、2015年的M=0.323具有一定的季节性;2011-2019年合计r=0.183,平均角ā=165.167°,角标准差s=105.528°(Z=376.917,P<0.01),高峰日为6月16日,流行高峰期为3月1日-10月1日。2012-2017年高峰日在第二季度,6月份较多,2018年、2019年高峰日在第三季度;集中度M值和圆形分布r值呈高度正相关(r=1.000,P<0.001)。结论甘肃省人间布氏菌病发病高峰主要在夏秋季,需围绕发病高峰期,在高发期来临前及时采取有效防控措施。Objective To analyze the seasonal characteristics of brucellosis in Gansu Province, and to provide references for the prevention and control of brucellosis. Methods We collected the monthly incidence data of brucellosis in Gansu Province from 2011 to 2019, used the concentration and circular distribution method to analyze the seasonal characteristics of brucellosis. Results From 2011 to 2019, a total of 11 207 cases of brucellosis were reported in Gansu Province, with no death cases, the incidence rate increased from 0.196/100 000(2011) to 6.291/100 000(2017). The overall M=0.183 from 2011 to 2019, indicated that there was poor seasonality, there was certain seasonality in 2012(M=0.357), 2013(M=0.342), 2014(M=0.333), 2015(M=0.323). Overall r=0.183 from 2011 to 2019, ā=165.167°, s=105.528°(Z=376.917, P<0.01), indicated that the peak day was in June 16 th, and the epidemic peak was March 1 st to October 1 st. From 2012 to 2017, the peaks occurred in the second quarter, and most in June, the peaks occurred in the third quarter in 2018 and 2019. The M-value was highly correlated with the r-value(r=1.000, P<0.001). Conclusion The peaks of brucellosis in Gansu Province mainly occurred in summer and autumn, it is necessary to take effective prevention and control measures on time around the peak period of incidence.

关 键 词：集中度 圆形分布法 布氏菌病 季节性 

分 类 号：R183.1[医药卫生—流行病学]