生育政策调整是否会影响我国“碳达峰”目标的实现?——基于STIRPAT和Leslie模型的实证研究  

China’s Carbon Emission Peak Forecast under Population Policy Adjustment:An Empirical Study on STIRPAT and Leslie Models

作　　者：程婉静 莫东序 李俊杰 田亚峻 CHENG Wanjing;MO Dongxu;LI Junjie;TIAN Yajun(Institute of Quantitative&Technological Economics,Chinese Academy of Social Sciences,Beijing 100732,China;Research Center of New Energy Development,China Energy Group,Beijing 100034,China;College of Statistics and Management,Shanghai University of Finance and Economics,Shanghai 200433,China;School of Chemical&Environmental Engineering,China University of Mining&Technology,Beijing 100083,China;Qingdao Institute of Bioenergy and Bioprocess Technology,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Qingdao Shandong 266101,China)

机构地区：[1]中国社会科学院数量经济与技术经济研究所,北京100732 [2]国家能源集团新能源发展研究中心,北京100034 [3]上海财经大学统计与管理学院,上海200433 [4]中国矿业大学(北京)化学与环境工程学院,北京100083 [5]中国科学院青岛生物能源与过程研究所,山东青岛266101

出　　处：《生态经济》2022年第3期22-29,39,共9页Ecological Economy

基　　金：中国工程院中国科技知识中心项目“能源专业知识服务系统”(CKCEST-2021-1-15);中国工程院咨询研究项目“宁东基地能源与生态环境、经济社会的高质量协同发展指数研究”(2020NXZD3)。

摘　　要：以中国人口生育政策调整为研究背景,基于STIRPAT模型和Leslie模型综合考察中国人口生育政策调整可能对实现“我国二氧化碳排放力争2030年前达到峰值”目标所带来的影响。结果表明,除了经济发展水平、能源技术水平、能源消费结构等因素外,人口年龄结构对人均碳排放也具有显著影响。在论文设置的四种生育率情景下,人口总量峰值分别出现在2025年、2027年、2031年和2027年。若生育政策调整能够有效提高社会总和生育率,人口规模和人口年龄结构的变化会使碳排放总量峰值推后出现。因此,中国逐步放宽的人口生育政策可能会给实现碳达峰目标带来一定压力。China’s population policy has been frequently adjusted.Hence,using extended STIRPAT theoretical model and a Leslie model,we comprehensively examine the impact of population policy adjustment on China’s total carbon emission peak.The results show that in addition to economic development level,energy technology level and energy consumption structure,demographic structure also has a significant impact on per capita carbon emissions.Under the four fertility scenarios used in this paper,population peak will be achieved in 2025,2027,2031 and 2027.If the birth policy changes can effectively increase the actual fertility rate,then the changes in the population size and age structure will also achieve the peak of total carbon emissions delayed by one to three years.Therefore,China’s gradual relaxation of the population policy at present may bring pressure on the commitment of the achievement of the carbon emission peak before 2030.

关 键 词：生育政策 碳排放 STIRPAT模型 Leslie模型 

分 类 号：F062.2[经济管理—政治经济学]