新财税政策下的职工基本养老保险最优缴费率测算研究  

Research on the Calculation of the Optimal Payment Rate of Employees'Basic Endowment Insurance under the New Fiscal and Tax Policy

作　　者：孙玮 赖锦柏 吴忠[1] Sun Wei;Lai Jinbo;Wu Zhong(ShangHai University of Engineering Science School of management,Shanghai 201600)

机构地区：[1]上海工程技术大学管理学院,上海201620

出　　处：《上海经济》2022年第1期96-110,共15页Shanghai Economy

基　　金：上海市政府决策咨询研究重点课题(2021-A-023)。

摘　　要：企业职工基本养老保险缴费率作为养老保险制度的关键性要素,受到专家学者的普遍关注,企业缴费率高、缴费压力大已成为制约企业发展的重要因素。本文综合运用灰色关联、因子分析与回归、动态调整和模拟预测的方法,构建企业基本养老保险缴费率适度水平的因子测算模型,以上海市2008—2019年的数据作为样本进行测算与预测。结果显示:缴费率的适度水平处于19%~23%;增加国有资产划转10%补充社保基金以及中央调剂金制度等参数后,模拟预测2018—2025年的缴费率适度水平在14.8%~18.6%之间,说明企业职工基本养老保险的缴费率有进一步下降的空间。Research on the calculation of the optimal payment rate of basic old-age insurance for employees under the new fiscal and tax policies as a key element of the old-age insurance system,the payment rate of basic old-age insurance for enterprise employees has been widely concerned by experts and scholars.The high payment rate and high payment pressure of enterprises have become an important component restricting the development of enterprises.This paper comprehensively uses the methods of grey correlation,factor analysis and regression,dynamic adjustment and simulation prediction to build a factor calculation model for the appropriate level of enterprise basic endowment insurance payment rate,and takes the data of Shanghai from 2008 to 2019 as a sample for calculation and prediction.The results show that the appropriate level of payment rate is 19%-23%;After increasing the parameters such as 10%state-owned assets transfer,supplementary social security fund and central adjustment fund system,it is simulated and predicted that the appropriate level of payment rate in 2018-2025 will be between 14.8%-18.6%,indicating that there is room for further decline in the payment rate of basic old-age insurance for enterprise employees.

关 键 词：养老保险缴费率 因子测算模型 动态调整 模拟预测 灰色关联分析 

分 类 号：F842.0[经济管理—保险] F842.4