基于随机演化博弈的重大调水工程生态补偿:以南水北调工程为例  

Ecological Compensation of Major Water Transfer Project Based on Stochastic Evolutionary Game:A Case Study of South-to-North Water Transfer Project

作　　者：高鑫 宋瑞震 曾赛星[1] 沈菊琴[2] GAO Xin;SONG Rui-zhen;ZENG Sai-xing;SHEN Ju-qin(Antai College of Economics and Management,Shanghai Jiao Tong University,Shanghai 200030,China;College of Agricultural Science and Engineering,Hohai University,Nanjing 211100,China)

机构地区：[1]上海交通大学安泰经济与管理学院,上海200030 [2]河海大学农业科学与工程学院,江苏南京211100

出　　处：《工程管理科技前沿》2022年第1期26-34,共9页Frontiers of Science and Technology of Engineering Management

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(71942006)。

摘　　要：南水北调工程供水区与受水区间因发展和补偿的非协调而导致矛盾越发凸显,亟待建立生态补偿予以化解。鉴于现有研究较少在不确定因素影响下对补偿主客体的决策行为以及纵向补偿与横向补偿的配比关系进行探索,本文结合演化博弈论与随机过程,构建了中央政府、供水区政府与受水区政府的随机演化博弈模型,分析了建立生态补偿的最优策略、约束条件及因素影响。研究发现:受水区政府是建立南水北调生态补偿的关键,其决策易受到初始概率、水环境保护成本、监管成本与随机扰动等因素的影响;惩罚是有效推动受水区政府参与生态补偿的环境规制方式;生态补偿标准及其配比会在方向与程度上影响各政府的决策。The contradiction between the water-supply area and the water-receiving area of the South-to-North Water Transfer Project is becoming more prominent due to the non-coordination of development and compensation,which needs to be resolved by establishing ecological compensation.There are few studies on the decision-making behavior of compensation subject and object,and the ratio of vertical compensation and horizontal compensation under the uncertain factors.Therefore,combined with evolutionary game theory and stochastic process,this paper constructs the stochastic evolutionary game model of central government,water-supply area governments and water-receiving area governments,and analyzes the optimal strategy,constraints and influencing factors of establishing ecological compensation.It is found that the water receiving area governments are the key to establish the ecological compensation of South-to-North Water Transfer Project,and their decision-making is easily affected by factors such as initial probability,water environment protection costs,supervision costs and random disturbance;Punishment is an effective way of environmental regulation to promote the governments of water receiving area to participate in ecological compensation;Ecological compensation standard and its distribution affect the decision-making of different governments in direction and degree.

关 键 词：生态补偿 南水北调工程 演化博弈 随机过程 仿真 

分 类 号：F224.32[经济管理—国民经济]