资本项目开放对人民币国际化的影响考察——兼析人民币加入SDR及中美贸易摩擦的影响  

The Effect of Capital Account Openness on Renminbi Internationalization——Plus the Effect of Renmibi Inclusion in SDR and Trade Conflict between China and USA

作　　者：张春生[1,2] 牛飞亮 ZHANG Chun-sheng;NIU Fei-liang(Guangdong University of Finance&Economics,Guangzhou,Guangdong 510320;Kashgar University,Kashgar,Xinjiang 844006)

机构地区：[1]广东财经大学,广东广州510320 [2]喀什大学,新疆喀什844006

出　　处：《商学研究》2022年第1期62-76,共15页Commercial Science Research

基　　金：国家社科基金项目“金融市场开放环境下的国家金融安全研究”(项目编号:20BJY241)。

摘　　要：近年来,很多研究者选取主流货币构建模型预测人民币国际化前景,得出资本项目开放度提高可推进人民币国际化。本文借鉴国内外文献,选取影响人民币国际化的相关因素,以季度数据考察资本项目开放及其他变量对人民币全球外汇储备占比、人民币国际支付占比、人民币国际债券占比的影响,并以香港人民币存款占外币存款比重作为人民币国际化的替代指标,结果表明资本项目开放并未阻碍人民币国际化,人民币加入SDR和中美贸易摩擦对人民币国际化的影响也不明显,人民币国际化的影响因素异于其他主流货币。以资本项目已开放、已国际化的货币样本所构建的模型预测结果远高于人民币国际化的现实,当前扩大资本项目开放无助于推动人民币国际化。In recent years,numerous researchers have selected mainstream currencies as sample and built models to predict the prospect of Renminbi internationalization,then arrived at the conclusion that capital account openness hinders Renminbi internationalization.Referring to relevant literatures,the paper chooses the influencing factors which affect Renminbi internationalization,using quarterly data to investigate the effect of capital account openness and other factors on the ratio of Renminbi in international reserve,the ratio of Renminbi in international payments,and the ratio of Renminbi international debt securities.Moreover,the ratio of Renminbi deposit in all foreign currency deposit in Hong Kong is also discussed as proxy of Renminbi internationalization level.The result shows capital account openness has not hindered Renminbi internationalization,the effect of Renminbi inclusion in SDR and trade conflict between China and USA is little,and the influencing factors are different from those of other mainstream currencies.The prediction results of the models built with the sample of the currencies whose capital account has opened and internationalized are greater than the reality of Renminbi internationalization,suggesting that the current expansion of capital account openness will not promote Renminbi internationalization.

关 键 词：人民币国际化 人民币资本项目开放 人民币加入SDR 中美贸易摩擦 

分 类 号：F832.4[经济管理—金融学]