中国老年体育活动趋势:“十四五”时期及中长期发展预测  

Trend of Sports Activities of the Aged in China:14th Five-Year Plan and Medium and Long-Term Development Forecast

作　　者：杨凡[1] 吴蓓蕾 张现苓 王富百慧[3] YANG Fan;WU Beilei;ZHANG Xianling;WANG Fubaihui(Renmin University of China,Beijing 100872,China;Central University of Finance and Economics,Beijing 100081,China;China Institute of Sport Science,Beijing 100061,China)

机构地区：[1]中国人民大学,北京100872 [2]中央财经大学,北京100081 [3]国家体育总局体育科学研究所,北京100061

出　　处：《中国体育科技》2022年第1期18-23,共6页China Sport Science and Technology

基　　金：北京市社会科学基金决策咨询项目(20JCC111);国家社会科学基金项目(16CTY015)。

摘　　要：运用人口预测和增长曲线拟合方法,利用2018年国家统计局1‰人口抽样调查数据和2018年《中国老年社会追踪调查》数据,对我国经常参加体育锻炼的老年人口规模和结构等状况进行发展趋势预测分析。结果显示,我国经常参加体育锻炼的老年人口总规模将持续增长,预测到"十四五"末期将增长至8471万人,到2035年达到1.9亿人,2050年达到2.6亿人。未来一段时期内,经常参加体育锻炼的老年人口年龄结构将进一步老化,参与各类体育活动的人口数量将快速增长,对锻炼场地、专业组织和指导人员的需求显著增加。Using the population prediction and growth curve fitting method,the data of 1‰population sample survey of the national bureau of statistics in 2018 and the data of the China Longitudinal Aging Social Survey(CLASS)in 2018 was used to forecast and analyze the development trend of the size and structure of the elderly population who regularly participate in physical exercise in China.The results show that the total size of the elderly population who regularly participate in physical exercise will continue to increase,and it is predicted that the number would increase to 84.71 million by the end of the 14 th Five-Year Plan,190 million by 2035,and260 million by 2050.In a period of time in the future,the age structure of the elderly population who regularly participate in physical exercise would be further aging,and the number of people participating in various kinds of physical activities would grow rapidly,which would significantly increase the demand for exercise venues,professional organizations and guidance personnel.

关 键 词：老龄化 老年体育活动 人口预测 发展趋势 

分 类 号：G812.48[文化科学—体育学]