基于流溪河模型的新丰江水库入库洪水预报模型研究  

Research on Flood Forecasting Model for Xinfengjiang Reservoir Based on Liuxihe Model

作　　者：邢丽雪 陈洋波[1] 冯永修 黄鑫 黄梓颖 XING Lixue;CHEN Yangbo;FENG Yongxiu;HUANG Xin;HUANG Ziying(School of Geography and Planning,Sun Yat-Sen University,Guangzhou 510000,China;Guangdong Yuedian Xinfengjiang Power Generation Company Limited,Guangzhou 510000,China)

机构地区：[1]中山大学地理科学与规划学院,广东广州510000 [2]广东粤电新丰江发电有限责任公司,广东广州510000

出　　处：《水文》2022年第1期47-53,共7页Journal of China Hydrology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(51961125206)。

摘　　要：基于流溪河模型构建了不同空间分辨率的新丰江水库入库洪水预报模型,采用粒子群算法优选模型参数进行洪水模拟,对比实测资料验证了模型性能。结果表明,建立的新丰江水库入库洪水预报流溪河模型模拟效果优良,符合新丰江水库入库洪水预报的精度要求,可用于新丰江水库入库洪水预报:90 m空间分辨率的模型模拟效果最好,200 m空间分辨率的模型也具有良好的模拟性能,500 m空间分辨率的模型模拟性能有明显降低。模型计算工作量随分辨率的提高呈指数增加,90 m空间分辨率的参数优选时间是200 m空间分辨率参数优选时间的7.04倍,而200 m空间分辨率的参数优选时间是500 m空间分辨率参数优选时间的3.53倍。This paper set up flood forecasting model of Xinfengjiang reservoir under different spatial revolution based on Liuxihe model,and simulated the observed hydrographs by optimizing model parameters with PSO algorithm,then verified model performance.The results show that the model performance is excellent with high simulation accuracy,and could be used for the real-time flood forecasting of Xinfengjiang reservoir.The model with 90 m spatial resolution has the best performance while the model performance with 500 m spatial resolution decreases obviously.The computation time needed for model run increases exponentially with the increase of spatial resolution,the time needed for running the 90 m spatial resolution model is 7.04 times as much as that needed for 200 m spatial resolution model,while the time needed for running the 200 m spatial resolution model is 3.53 times as much as that needed for 500 m spatial resolution model.

关 键 词：洪水预报 分布式水文模型 流溪河模型 参数优选 空间尺度 

分 类 号：P338[天文地球—水文科学]