和田河流域近60年降水、气温与径流演变特征研究  

Study on the Evolution Characteristics of Main Hydrometeorological Factors and Runoff in Hetian River Basin in Recent 60 Years

作　　者：那扎凯提·托乎提 虎胆·吐马尔白[1] 焦萍 米力夏提·米那多拉 陈杰[2] NAZAKAITI Tohuti;HUDAN Tumarbai;JIAO Ping;MILISHATI Minadora;CHEN Jie(School of Water Conservancy and Civil Engineering,Xinjiang Agricultural University,Urumqi 830052,China;School of Water Conservancy and Hydropower,Wuhan University,Hubei 430000,China)

机构地区：[1]新疆农业大学水利与土木工程学院,新疆乌鲁木齐830052 [2]武汉大学水利水电学院,湖北武汉430000

出　　处：《水文》2022年第1期85-89,66,共6页Journal of China Hydrology

基　　金：新疆塔里木河流域管理局科研项目“气候变化对塔里木河流域水资源管理的影响与适应性对策”(TGJJG-2016KYXM0004);水利部公益性科研专项(201501059);科技基础资源调查专项(2019FY100205)。

摘　　要：以新疆和田河流域为例,采取Mann-Kendall趋势检测法、Pettitt突变检测法与小波分析等方法剖析了研究区近60年气温、降雨和径流变动特点。结果显示:(1)研究区降水、气温和径流均有增加或升高趋势,其中气温变化呈显著增加;(2)研究区降水、气温、径流突变分别发生于1986年、1996年和1993年;(3)研究区降水、气温和径流均无显著性周期性变化,但存在短时间段周期变化,降水在研究时段内呈现丰枯交替变化,自20世纪90年代逐渐湿化。气温呈现逐渐升高的发展趋势。20世纪90年代以前,径流年代际变化以偏枯为主,近20年年代际变化以偏丰为主。Taking the Hetian River Basin in Xinjiang as an example,this paper adopts Mann-Kendall trend detection method,Pettitt mutation detection method and wavelet analysis to analyze and study the characteristics of temperature,rainfall and runoff changes in 60 years.The results show that:(1)the precipitation,temperature and runoff in the study area all have increased trend,of which the temperature change shows a significant increase;(2)the temperature has a sudden change in 1996,the precipitation has a sudden change in 1986,and the runoff occurred in 1993;(3)there is no significant periodic change in precipitation,temperature and runoff in the study area,but there are periodic changes in a short period of time;there is an alternating change between high and dry seasons,and gradually humidified since the 1990s.The temperature shows a trend of gradual increase.Before the 1990s,the interdecadal variation of runoff is mainly dry,and the interdecadal change in the past 20 years is mainly rich.

关 键 词：和田河流域 径流 演变特征 

分 类 号：P339[天文地球—水文科学]