气候变化和人类活动对灌区地下水埋深的影响  

The Effects of Climate Change and Anthropogenic Activities on Groundwater in Irrigation District

作　　者：张彦[1,4,5] 程锐[2] 邹磊 梁志杰 吕伟 窦明[4] 李平 胡艳玲 齐学斌[1,5] ZHANG Yan;CHENG Rui;ZOU Lei;LIANG Zhijie;LYU Wei;DOU Ming;LI Ping;HU Yanling;QI Xuebin(Institute of Farmland Irrigation,Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences,Xinxiang 453002,China;Chinese Hydraulic Engineering Society,Beijing 100053,China;Key Laboratory of Water Cycle and Related Land Surface Processes,Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100101,China;School of Water Conservancy Engineering,Zhengzhou University,Zhengzhou 450001,China;Laboratory of Quality and Safety Risk Assessment for Agro-Products on Water Environmental Factors,Ministry of Agriculture,Xinxiang 453002,China;Zhejiang Dayu Information Technology Limited Company,Hangzhou 310002,China)

机构地区：[1]中国农业科学院农田灌溉研究所,河南新乡453002 [2]中国水利学会,北京100053 [3]中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所陆地水循环及地表过程院重点实验室,北京100101 [4]郑州大学水利科学与工程学院,郑州450001 [5]农业农村部农产品质量安全水环境因子风险评估实验室,河南新乡453002 [6]浙江大禹信息技术有限公司,杭州310002

出　　处：《灌溉排水学报》2022年第2期91-100,共10页Journal of Irrigation and Drainage

基　　金：河南省科技攻关项目(212102311144,212102310484);河南省自然科学基金项目(212300410310);中央级公益性科研院所基本科研业务费专项(FIRI202001-05,FIRI20210105);国家自然科学基金项目(51879239,42101043)。

摘　　要：【目的】探析气候变化和人类活动对灌区地下水埋深的影响。【方法】利用年代波动性分析、突变检验、灰色关联分析、敏感性分析、双累积曲线法和相对贡献率分析了人民胜利渠灌区1952—2013年地下水埋深及其影响因素的变化和突变特征,并识别了地下水埋深与各影响因素间的响应特征。【结果】人民胜利渠灌区地下水埋深呈明显增加趋势(0.8 m/10 a)。地下水埋深在1952—1959年的变异系数最大,为27.33%,呈中等变异性;降水量、蒸发量、平均气温和灌溉水量在1960s的变异系数最大,其中蒸发量和平均气温呈弱变异性。地下水埋深、降水量、蒸发量、平均气温和灌溉水量的突变年份分别发生在1984年、1970s、1972年前后、1973年前后以及1993—1996年。各影响因素对地下水埋深的影响程度大小为平均气温>降水量>灌溉水量>蒸发量,敏感程度为平均气温>蒸发量>降水量>灌溉水量。各影响因素对地下水埋深的贡献大小呈平均气温>蒸发量>灌溉水量>降水量,其中平均气温的贡献率最大为38.16%,降水量的贡献率最小为17.40%;2002—2013年灌溉水量对地下水埋深的贡献率最大为47.05%。【结论】不同时间阶段各影响因素对地下水埋深的贡献不同,1952—1963年蒸发量的贡献最大,1964—2001年平均气温的贡献最大,2002—2013年灌溉水量的贡献最大。【Background and objective】Groundwater is the most important water resource for agricultural production in many regions around the world and its spatiotemporal changes are affected by a multitude of natural and anthropogenic factors.Understanding their quantitative relationship is hence imperative not only to sustain agricultural production but also to safeguard the development of other sectors.Taking an irrigation district in central China as an example,this paper analyzed the fluctuation of its groundwater depth in response to climate change and anthropogenic activity.【Method】The analysis was based on groundwater and meteorological data measured from 1952-2013 from the People’s Victory Canal Irrigation District.Their changes and relationship were analyzed using the decadal volatility analysis,mutation test analysis,gray correlation analysis,sensitivity analysis,double cumulative curve method,and the relative contribution rate method.【Result】The groundwater depth in the district has been increasing at an average rate of 0.8 m/10 a.The maximum coefficient of variation of the groundwater depth from 1952—1959 was 27.33%;the coefficients of variation of the precipitation,evaporation,average temperature and the amount of irrigation water all peaked in 1960 s,though the variation of the evaporation and average temperature was not as strong as other factors.Abrupt changes in groundwater depth,precipitation,evaporation,average temperature and irrigation water amount occurred in 1984,1970 s,1972,1973 and 1993—1996,respectively.The influence of each factor on groundwater depth was ranked in the order of average temperature > precipitation >irrigation water amount > evaporation,while the sensitivity of groundwater depth to different factors was ranked in the order of average temperature > evaporation > precipitation > the amount of irrigation water.On average,the contributions of the different factors to groundwater depth change were ranked in the order of average temperature >evaporation > irrigation wate

关 键 词：气候变化 人类活动 地下水埋深 响应特征 相对贡献率 

分 类 号：TV213[水利工程—水文学及水资源]