基于多元线性回归模型和Anusplin的秦巴山区≥10℃积温空间模拟比较  

Spatial Simulation of Active Accumulated Temperature≥10℃in Qinling-Daba Mountains Based on Anusplin and Multiple Linear Regression Model

作　　者：张善红[1,2,3] 白红英 齐贵增[1,3] 梁佳 赵婷 ZHANG Shanhong;BAI Hongying;QI Guizeng;LIANG Jia;ZHAO Ting(College of Urban and Environmental Sciences,Northwest University,Xi′an 710127,China;College of Urban,Rural Planning and Architectural Engineering,Shangluo University,Shangluo,Shaanxi 726000,China;Key Laboratory of Shaanxi Surface System and Environmental Carrying Capacity,Northwest University,Xi′an 710127,China;Shaanxi Meteorological Service Center,Xi′an 710014,China)

机构地区：[1]西北大学城市与环境学院,西安710127 [2]商洛学院城乡规划与建筑工程学院,陕西商洛726000 [3]西北大学陕西省地表系统与环境承载力重点实验室,西安710127 [4]陕西省气象服务中心,西安710014

出　　处：《水土保持研究》2022年第1期184-189,196,共7页Research of Soil and Water Conservation

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(31570440);商洛市气候适应型城市重点实验室开放研究(SLSYS2019019)。

摘　　要：为获取山区准确的高精度空间积温数据,采用高精度的气象插值软件Anusplin和多元线性回归模型两种方法,模拟山区≥10℃积温的空间分布,为山区积温空间模拟提供解决方法。以地形起伏较大的秦巴山区作为研究区,选用研究区内69个气象站点及其周边22个气象站点1960—2019年的逐日平均气温实测数据,采用Anusplin和多元线性回归模型两种方法,模拟了秦巴山区30 m分辨率≥10℃积温的空间分布。通过对预留气象站点实测数据进行验证,评价了两种方法在山区积温空间分布模拟复杂性问题中的适用性。结果表明:基于Anusplin的≥10℃积温的空间模拟方法较多元线性回归模型插值精度略高。即基于Anusplin的空间模拟方法能更真实地反映山区积温的空间分布情况,体现了海拔、经纬度对积温的影响,能更好地模拟复杂山区高精度的积温数据,为山区积温空间模拟提供了新的选择方法。To obtain accurate and fast spatial accumulated temperature data in mountainous regions,two methods,high-precision meteorological interpolation software Anusplin and multiple linear regression model,were used to simulate the spatial distribution of accumulated temperature≥10℃in mountainous areas in order to provide solutions for the spatial distribution of accumulated temperature in mountainous areas.The Qinling-Daba Mountains with large topographic relief was taken as the study area.Based on Anusplin and multiple linear regression interpolation methods separately,30 m resolution spatial distribution of actively accumulated temperature≥10℃(AAT10)was simulated by combining with DEM and the daily meteorological observation data from 69 meteorological stations in the research and surrounding 22 meteorological stations during 1960—2019.The interpolation accuracy of Anusplin and multiple linear regression were compared,and the applicability of the two methods in complex mountainous areas is evaluated through verifying the measured data of reserved meteorological stations.The results show that both two interpolation methods are suitable for spatial simulation of active accumulated temperature≥10℃(AAT10)in Qinling-Daba mountains,but the Anusplin has slightly higher accuracy than the multiple linear regression interpolation methods.In other words,the spatial interpolation method based on Anusplin can more realistically reflect the spatial distribution of the accumulated temperature,and can better simulate the high-precision accumulated temperature data of complex mountainous areas,which provides a new method for the spatial simulation of active accumulated temperature in the mountainous area.

关 键 词：Anusplin 活动积温 多元线性回归模型 空间模拟 秦巴山区 

分 类 号：P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]