基于SPEI的黄河流域多时间尺度干湿变化分析  

Multiple Time Scales Analysis of Dryness and Wetness Changes of the Yellow River Basin in the Past 50 Years Based on SPEI Data

作　　者：梁守真[1] 隋学艳[1] 王猛[1] 李新华[2] 董红云 姚慧敏[3] 马万栋 LIANG Shouzhen;SUI Xueyan;WANG Meng;LI Xinhua;DONG Hongyun;YAO Huimin;MA Wandong(Institute of Agricultural Information and Economics,Shandong Academy of Agricultural Sciences,Ji′nan 250100,China;Institute of Wetland Agriculture and Ecology,Shandong Academy of Agricultural Sciences,Ji′nan 250100,China;Key Laboratory of East China Urban Agriculture,Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs,Institute of Leisure Agriculture,Shandong Academy of Agricultural Sciences,Ji′nan 250100,China;Satellite Environment Center,Ministry of Ecology and Environment,Beijing 100094,China)

机构地区：[1]山东省农业科学院农业信息与经济研究所,济南250100 [2]山东省农业科学院湿地农业与生态研究所,济南250100 [3]农业农村部华东都市农业重点实验室/山东省农业科学院休闲农业研究所,济南250100 [4]生态环境部卫星环境应用中心,北京100094

出　　处：《水土保持研究》2022年第1期231-241,共11页Research of Soil and Water Conservation

基　　金：山东省自然科学基金面上项目“黄河三角洲翅碱蓬花青素遥感探测机理与监测(ZR2020MD019)”;山东省农业科学院创新工程“湿地生态环境长期定位监测(CXGC2021A37)”;国家自然科学基金:“森林冠层绿色FPAR的高光谱遥感反演研究(41401407)”。

摘　　要：黄河流域是我国重要的经济地带和生态屏障,水资源匮乏,研究流域的干湿变化对于水资源的合理管理和利用、促进流域的可持续发展具有十分重要的现实意义。运用1966—2015年3个时间尺度(年、半年、季节尺度)的SPEI数据,基于EOF,Mann-Kendall方法研究了全球变暖背景下黄河流域的干湿变化特征,并进行归因探讨。结果表明:在过去的50年中,黄河流域的SPEI有显著的年际波动,但大部分区域的SPEI未有显著的增加或降低的趋势,区域之间的干湿变化具有非同步特征;黄河流域气温与SPEI相关性弱,SPEI与降水有更好的同步性;黄河流域夏、秋季节的干旱较冬、春季节严重,中部黄土高原区的干旱事件频率高于黄河流域西部高原和东部平原区。研究表明黄河流域干湿状况存在区域差异,降水是决定SPEI大小的关键因子,异常气候事件—厄尔尼诺在一定程度上会影响流域的干湿状况。The Yellow River Basin where water resources are lacking is an important economic region and ecological protective screen.Therefore,it is meaningful to research the dryness and wetness changes of the Yellow River Basin for reasonable management and use of water and sustainable development of the basin.In this study,the SPEI data from 1966 to 2015 were analyzed to acquire the characteristics of the dryness and wetness changes of the Yellow River Basin in the context of global warming through EOF and Mann-Kendall methods.Furthermore,the reasons inducing SPEI change were also discussed.The results showed that in the past 50 years,SPEI had changed temporally,but there were no obvious increase or decrease trends in SPEI,and the changes of dryness and wetness among regions were nonsynchronous;the correlation coefficient between SPEI and air temperature was small,and precipitation was the main factor determining SPEI in the Yellow River Basin;there were more droughts in summer and autumn than those in winter and spring,and compared with the western plateau and eastern plain,the Loess Platea in the Yellow River Basin had more droughts.El Nino can worsen the effects of droughts in the Yellow River Basin.

关 键 词：SPEI 干湿变化 多时间尺度 干旱 黄河流域 

分 类 号：P426.1[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]