流动人口与经济发展--基于城市面板数据的实证研究  

Floating Population and Economic Development:An Empirical Research Based on Urban Panel Data

作　　者：张利国 冷浪平 ZHANG Li-guo;LENG Lang-ping(Jiangxi University of Finance and Economics,Nanchang 330013,China)

机构地区：[1]江西财经大学经济学院/生态经济研究院,江西330013

出　　处：《当代财经》2022年第2期16-27,共12页Contemporary Finance and Economics

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目“农村集体产权制度改革深化与经济发展研究”(20ZDA045);国家自然科学基金项目“农户分化视角下农业生产社会化服务体系构建:需求差异、绩效评价和驱动机制”(72073054);国家自然科学基金项目“邻里效应对流动人口相对贫困的影响机制与治理策略研究--以赣南革命老区外出劳动人口为例”(72063012)

摘　　要：近年来我国人口回流现象表明流动人口与经济发展并不是简单的线性关系,利用2009-2018年城市面板数据的实证研究表明,流动人口与经济发展之间呈现倒U型关系,"北上广深"等发达地区逐渐步入人口回流阶段,其余大部分地区仍处于流动人口与经济发展正相关阶段。在溢出效应上,经济发展存在显著正向空间溢出效应,能够促进周边地区的人口流入;流动人口具有显著的虹吸效应,对周边地区人口流入有一定程度抑制作用。因此,发达地区应认识到人口回流的必然趋势,推进产业结构和人口结构"双转型升级",欠发达地区应顺应人口回流的大趋势,承接发达地区产业转移,合理引导和安置回流人口,推动城镇化和乡村振兴向纵深发展。In recent years, the phenomenon of population return in China indicates that the floating population and economic development are not simply the linear relation. The empirical research using the urban panel data from 2009 to 2018 shows that there is an inverted U-shaped relationship between the floating population and the economic development. The developed regions such as Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Shenzhen etc., have gradually entered the stage of population backflow,while most of the remaining regions are still in a stage of positive correlation between floating population and economic development. In terms of spillover effect, economic development has a significant positive spatial spillover effect, which can promote population inflows in the surrounding areas. Population floating has a significant siphonic effect, which can inhibit the population inflow in the surrounding areas to a certain extent. Therefore, the developed areas should realize the inevitable trend of population backflow and promote the“double transformation and upgrading”of the industrial structure and the demographic structure. The underdeveloped areas should conform to the general trend of population backflow, undertake industrial transfer from developed areas, reasonably guide the returned population and let them set down, and promote the further development of urbanization and rural revitalization.

关 键 词：流动人口 经济发展 人口回流 溢出效应 

分 类 号：F293.1[经济管理—国民经济]