高质量产业活动识别与主要增长极产业发展前景  

Identification of High-quality Industrial Activities and Prospect of Major Growth Pole Industries Development

作　　者：石奇[1] 梁莉[2] 周宁[1] Shi Qi;Liang Li;Zhou Ning

机构地区：[1]南京财经大学经济学院 [2]南京财经大学粮食和物资学院

出　　处：《经济学家》2022年第2期86-96,共11页Economist

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目“创新引领发展的机制与对策研究”(18ZDA102);国家自然科学基金青年项目“绿色发展视角下农业生态补贴的效果评价、机制检验及补贴标准优化--以果菜茶有机肥替代化肥行动为例”(72004089)。

摘　　要：本文构建了以规模报酬、进入壁垒及技术创新机会窗口为标准的高质量产业活动识别指标。研究显示:第一,规模报酬、进入壁垒与技术创新机会窗口是能够用于识别中国高质量产业活动的重要指标;第二,相比较而言,技术创新机会窗口对信息传输、软件和信息技术服务业、高技术制造业的高质量发展水平驱动明显;第三,三大指标中的规模报酬、进入壁垒在中国主要增长极中发挥了明显的促进作用,技术创新机会窗口对经济发达的增长极作用更加显著;第四,基于三大指标判断,信息传输、软件和信息技术服务业、高技术制造业和中技术制造业在"十四五"期间及今后一段时期成为中国主要增长极具有发展潜力的产业。This paper constructs a high-quality industry activity identification indicators based on returns to scale,entry barriers and technological innovation opportunity windows.The research finds that:Firstly,increasing returns to scale,market entry barriers and the windows of opportunity for technological innovation play a positive role in the industrial development of China.Secondly,the windows of opportunity for technological innovation have a more significant effect on the promotion of information transmission,software and information technology services industries,high-tech manufacturing industries by comparison.Thirdly,increasing returns to scale and market entry barriersin the three major indicators play a significant role in China’s main growth pole,and the windows of opportunity for technological innovation plays an even more important role in the growth poles of economic development.Finally,based on three indicators,information transmission,software and information technology services,high-tech manufacturing and medium-tech manufacturing will be the major industries with great growth potential in China’s main growth pole during the"14 th Five-Year Plan"period and in the future.

关 键 词：高质量发展 规模报酬 进入壁垒 技术创新机会窗口 

分 类 号：F062.9[经济管理—政治经济学]