基于三种多变量不安定指数分析模型的汶川县地质灾害易发性评价  

Geological hazard susceptibility evaluation in Wenchuan area based on three models of multivariate instability index analysis

作　　者：毕鸿基 聂磊 曾超[2] 范晨 周天伦 刘晓[1] BI Hongji;NIE Lei;ZENG Chao;FAN Chen;ZHOU Tianlun;LIU Xiao(Three Gorges Research Center for Geohazard of Ministry of Education,China University of Geosciences(Wuhan),Wuhan,Hubei 430074,China;Zhongjiao Second Highway Survey and Design Research Institute,Wuhan,Hubei 430056,China)

机构地区：[1]中国地质大学(武汉)教育部长江三峡库区地质灾害研究中心,湖北武汉430074 [2]中交第二公路勘察设计研究院有限公司,湖北武汉430056

出　　处：《中国地质灾害与防治学报》2022年第1期123-131,共9页The Chinese Journal of Geological Hazard and Control

基　　金：国家自然科学基金面上项目(42072314;41572279);国家重点研发计划资助(2017YFC1501304);中国博士后科学基金特别资助项目(2014T70758);中交第二公路勘察设计研究院有限公司科技研发项目(KJFZ-2018-049)。

摘　　要：采用多变量不安定指数分析法模型并加以改进,应用于汶川县地质灾害易发性评价。选取坡度、坡向、地层岩性、距断层距离、植被覆盖率及距水系距离六项影响因子,结合四川省自然资源厅发布的汶川县地质灾害隐患点数据,以幂次相乘、线性累加、幂次累加这三种不同的不安定指数分析法模型分别得到了研究区地质灾害易发性分区图,并用接受者操作特性曲线(Receiver Operating Characteristic curve, ROC curve)验证了各种模型的评价性能。结果表明:(1)对本案例而言,幂次相乘模型相较其它两种模型具有最高的精度;(2)汶川县地质灾害"极高""高""中""低""极低"易发区的面积占比分别为:19.3%、 24.6%、 19.2%、 19.3%、 17.6%,且研究区地质灾害易发性较高的区域多分布在断裂带附近。本研究成果可为区域地质灾害防治工作提供理论借鉴和技术参考。A derived model of multivariate instability index analysis method was proposed to evaluate the susceptibility of geological disasters in Wenchuan County. Based on the data of potential geological hazards in Wenchuan County released by Sichuan Provincial Department of Natural Resources, six influencing factors including slope, aspect, stratum lithology, distance from fault, vegetation coverage and distance from water system are involved. Three different methods of multivariate instability index analysis, namely power multiplication, linear accumulation and power accumulation, are used to obtain the geological disaster susceptibility zoning map of the study area Receiver Operating Characteristic(ROC) curve verifies the evaluation performance of various models. The results show that:(1) for this case, the power multiplication model has the highest accuracy compared with the other two models;(2) the percentages of area with different susceptibility levels, i.e. very high, high,moderate, low, and very low, are 19.3%, 24.6%, 19.2%, 19.3%, 17.6% respectively, moreover, the higher level of susceptibility,the closer to the fault zones. This research provides theoretical and technical reference for the prevention and mitigation of regional geological disasters.

关 键 词：GIS 地质灾害易发性 汶川 多变量不安定指数分析法 

分 类 号：P208[天文地球—地图制图学与地理信息工程] P694[天文地球—测绘科学与技术]