长江上游流域生长季气象干旱分异特征  

Differentiation Characteristics of Meteorological Drought in the Growing Season in the Upper Reaches of the Yangtze River Basin

作　　者：杨少康 刘冀[1,2,3] 魏榕[1,2,3] 董晓华 刘艳丽 丛方杰[6] YANG Shaokang;LIU Ji;WEI Rong;DONG Xiaohua;LIU Yanli;CONG Fangjie(College of Hydraulic and Environmental Engineering,China Three Gorges University,Yichang,Hubei 443002,China;Engineering Research Center of Eco-environment in Three Gorges Reservoir Region,Ministry of Education,Yichang,Hubei 443002,China;Hubei Collaborative Innovation Center for Water Resources Security,Wuhan 430072,China;State Key Laboratory of Hydrology,Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering,Nanjing Hydraulic Research Institute,Nanjing 210098,China;Research Center for Climate Change,Ministry of Water Resources,Nanjing 210029,China;Network and Educational Technology Center,Yantai University,Yantai,Shandong 264005,China)

机构地区：[1]三峡大学水利与环境学院,湖北宜昌443002 [2]三峡库区生态环境教育部工程研究中心,湖北宜昌443002 [3]水资源安全保障湖北省协同创新中心,武汉430072 [4]南京水利科学研究院水文水资源与水利工程科学国家重点实验室,南京210098 [5]水利部应对气候变化研究中心,南京210029 [6]烟台大学网络与教育技术中心,山东烟台264005

出　　处：《水土保持研究》2022年第2期184-191,共8页Research of Soil and Water Conservation

基　　金：国家重点研发计划项目(2018YFC1508104);国家自然科学基金(51679145,91747103,51609124)。

摘　　要：为揭示长江上游流域气象干旱发生与演变规律,基于气象站1961—2019年逐月气象数据,运用旋转正交分解(REOF)、集合经验模态分解(EEMD)及游程理论等方法研究了其生长季气象干旱变化特征。结果表明:长江上游可分为8个气象干旱亚区,其中Ⅴ区呈干旱趋势,Ⅰ区、Ⅲ区及Ⅶ区表现为变湿态势,其他各区表现为干湿交替态势;干旱周期以年际为主,Ⅰ和Ⅲ区表现出较为明显的年代际周期特征,趋势贡献较高的为Ⅴ区及Ⅷ区,其余各区趋势的贡献均小于年代际贡献;Ⅱ区干旱时间最长,达到1.57月,Ⅶ区最小为1.41月,仅有Ⅶ区干旱时间呈显著下降趋势,各区干旱强度比较接近,差异不大,且未来变化趋势不明显,Ⅶ区干旱面积为各区最大,达到30.36%,Ⅵ区干旱面积最小为19.18%,整体而言,干旱发生最为集中的为Ⅶ区,其AD达到0.091,最为分散的是Ⅱ区,其AD达到0.194。综上,长江上游流域各分区生长季气象干旱特征各有不同,西北部地区干旱较东南部地区严重。In order to reveal the occurrence and evolution of meteorological drought in the upper reaches of the Yangtze River,based on the monthly meteorological data of the weather station from 1961 to 2019,the methods of rotating orthogonal decomposition(REOF),ensemble empirical mode decomposition(EEMD)and run theory were used to study the characteristics of meteorological drought changes in the growth season.The results show that the upper reaches of the Yangtze River can be divided into 8 meteorological arid sub-regions,of which zoneⅤshows a drought trend,zoneⅠ,zoneⅢ,and zoneⅦshow a humidification trend,and other regions become wet and dry alternately;the drought cycle is interannual.Mainly,regionⅠand regionⅢshow obvious characteristics of interdecadal cycles,and regionⅤand regionⅧhave higher trend contributions,and the contributions of the other regions are less than the interdecadal contributions;the period of drought in regionⅡis the longest,reaching 1.57 months.AreaⅦhas a minimum of 1.41 months,and only areaⅦshows a significant decrease in drought time.The drought intensity of each area is relatively close,and the future change trend is not obvious.AreaⅦhas the largest arid area of each area,reaching 30.36%,and area of drought of areaⅥis the smallest,accounting for19.18%.On the whole,the most concentrated area of drought is areaⅦ,with an AD of 0.091,and the most dispersed area is areaⅡ,with an AD of 0.194.To sum up,the characteristics of meteorological drought in the growth season of each subregion in the upper reaches of the Yangtze River are different.The drought in the northwest is more severe than that in the southeast.

关 键 词：标准降水蒸散发指数(SPEI) 旋转正交分解(REOF) 集合经验模态分解(EEMD) 长江上游流域 游程理论 干旱离散度 

分 类 号：P332[天文地球—水文科学]