基于Markov-FLUS模型的广西土地利用变化模拟预测  

Simulation and Prediction of Land Use Change in Guangxi Based on Markov-FLUS Model

作　　者：谢凌凌 许进龙 臧俊梅[2] 黄天能[3] XIE Lingling;XU Jinlong;ZANG Junmei;HUANG Tianneng(Institute for Maritime Silk Road and Guangxi Regional Development,Guangxi University of Finance and Economics,Nanning 530004,China;School of Public Administration,South China University of Technology,Guangzhou 510000,China;Economic and Trade College,Guangxi University of Finance and Economics,Nanning 530004,China)

机构地区：[1]广西财经学院海上丝绸之路与广西区域发展研究院,南宁530004 [2]华南理工大学公共管理学院,广州510000 [3]广西财经学院经济与贸易学院,南宁530004

出　　处：《水土保持研究》2022年第2期249-254,264,共7页Research of Soil and Water Conservation

基　　金：广西自然科学基金(2018JJA180025);广西第一批八桂青年学者专项项目(厅发〔2019〕79号)。

摘　　要：耕地保护是确保粮食安全和社会经济稳定的头等大事,土地利用变化预测分析则是调整耕地保护政策的重要依据。为了探究广西耕地保护工作成效、促进土地资源合理配置,围绕耕地保护,运用Markov-FLUS模型,分别基于非限制性与耕地保护两类情景,预测2025年广西土地利用数量及空间变化状况,对比了两类情景下耕地变化差异。结果表明:(1)广西城市建设效果明显,2005—2015年,城镇用地、交通基础设施用地等其他建设用地面积增长了893 km^(2),增长率达77.25%。两类不同土地利用情景模拟预测下,至2025年,城镇用地面积均保持增长趋势,但耕地保护情景下,其扩张速度受到限制;(2)广西生态保护成效良好,两类不同土地利用情景模拟预测下,至2025年,林地、草地、水域等生态用地面积均保持增长趋势;(3)广西耕地保护任重道远,2005—2015年,耕地面积减少626 km^(2),两类不同土地利用情景模拟预测下,至2025年,耕地面积均延续减少趋势。但耕地保护情景下,耕地面积减少态势得到一定程度遏止;(4)不同发展阶段,影响广西耕地保护的主导因素各异:2005—2015年,交通道路等基础设施建设是影响广西耕地保护的主要因素;2015—2025年,随着社会经济加速发展,南宁市、桂林市、柳州市以及“钦北防”沿海城市建设用地的扩张和桂西北、桂南地区林业用地的增长,将成为广西耕地减少的主要原因。Farmland protection is the top priority to ensure food security and social and economic stability,and the prediction analysis on land use change is an important reference for adjusting farmland protection policies.In order to explore the effectiveness of the protection of cultivated land and promote the rational allocation of land resources in Guangxi,this paper focuses on the farmland protection and predicts the quantity and spatial change of land use in Guangxi by 2025 based on two different scenarios of unrestricted development and farmland protection using the Markov-FLUS model.The differences in farmland use under two different scenarios were also compared.The effectiveness and main obstacles of farmland protection were analyzed.The results show that:(1)Guangxi had made the noticeable achievements in its urban construction;from 2005 to 2015,the lands for urban construction,transportation infrastructure and other construction purpose increased by 893 km^(2),with a growth of 77.25%;the simulation and prediction show that urban land area will continue to increase by 2025 under two different scenarios,but its expansion will slow down when the farmland is protected;(2)Guangxi had achieved good results in ecological protection;the simulation and prediction of land use under two different scenarios show that ecological land areas such as forest,grassland and water area will continue to increase by 2025;(3)Guangxi still has a long way to go to protect its farmland,which decreased by 626 km^(2) from 2005 to 2015;the simulation and prediction under two different land use scenarios show that its farmland area will continue to decrease by 2025;however,under the farmland protection scenario,the pace of decreasing farmland area will slow down to a certain extent;(4)the leading factors affecting farmland protection in Guangxi were various in different development stages;roads and other infrastructure construction were the main factors affecting the farmland protection from 2005 to 2015.With the accelerated social and econo

关 键 词：MARKOV模型 FLUS模型 土地利用变化 模拟预测 耕地保护 

分 类 号：F301.24[经济管理—产业经济]