考虑群体差异的公路客运站旅客集聚行为分析  

Analysis on passengers'agglomeration behavior at highway passenger stations considering group difference

作　　者：左微 戢晓峰[1,2] 陈方 覃文文[1,2] ZUO Wei;JI Xiaofeng;CHEN Fang;QIN Wenwen(Faculty of Traffic Engineering,Kunming University of Science and Technology,Kunming Yunnan 650504,China;Yunnan Integrated Transport Development and Regional Logistics Management Think Tank,Kunming Yunnan 650504,China;Faculty of Finance And Logistics Management,Liuzhou Vocational and Technical College,Liuzhou Guangxi 545006,China)

机构地区：[1]昆明理工大学交通工程学院,云南昆明650504 [2]昆明理工大学云南综合交通发展与区域物流管理智库,云南昆明650504 [3]柳州职业技术学院财经与物流管理学院,广西柳州545006

出　　处：《中国安全科学学报》2022年第2期42-50,共9页China Safety Science Journal

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助(42061030,52062024)。

摘　　要：为降低客运站高峰期旅客集聚引起的安全隐患,利用公路客运全样本购票数据,首先,从集聚概率、集聚时长、集聚强度3个维度构建旅客集聚行为量化模型,获取工作日、节假日及春运不同等级客运站客流集聚特征;然后,考虑旅客个体属性与出行特征属性,分析不同旅客群体的集聚行为特征;最后,通过差异性检验解析集聚行为的影响因素,并提出降低安全风险的应对策略。结果表明:公路客运站旅客集聚概率服从6项多项式分布,累积集聚概率服从二次函数分布,发车前[10,20]min集聚概率最高;不论出行距离长短,多数旅客候车时间较短,但不同时期,不同等级客运站的客流集聚强度、速度差异显著;一级客运站旅客时空集聚特征显著,二级客运站集聚随机性更强。In order to reduce potential safety hazards caused by passenger agglomeration at passenger stations during peak periods,based on full sample ticket purchasing data of highway passenger transport,a quantitative model of agglomeration behavior was established from three aspects,which were agglomeration probability,duration and intensity,and gathering characteristics of passenger flows at different levels of stations during weekdays,holidays and Spring Festival were obtained.Then,considering passengers'individual attributes and travel characteristics,agglomeration behavior characteristics of different groups were analyzed.Finally,a difference test was conducted to analyze influencing factors of such behavior,and countermeasures to reduce security risks were put forward.The results show that probability of passenger agglomeration in highway stations follows distribution of six polynomials,and its cumulative probability follows that of quadratic function,with highest probability of it occurring[10,20]min before departure.Regardless of travel distance,most travelers have a short waiting time,but in different periods,their flow concentration intensity and speed for different levels of passenger stations are significantly different.The spatial and temporal clustering characteristics of the first level stations are significant,while randomness of second level ones is stronger.

关 键 词：旅客群体 公路客运站 旅客集聚行为 出行距离 安全风险 

分 类 号：X910[环境科学与工程—安全科学]