基于Maxent模型的宁夏枸杞瘿螨适生性分析  

Adaptability Analysis of Aceria macrodonis Keifer in Ningxia Based on Maxent Model

作　　者：武万里 刘垚[1,2] 马菁[3] 张学俭 Wu Wanli;Liu Yao;Ma Jing;Zhang Xuejian(Key Laboratory for Meteorological Disaster Monitoring and Early Warning and Risk Management of Characteristic Agriculture in Arid Regions,CMA,Yinchuan,Ningxia 750002,China;Ningxia Key Lab of Meteorological Disaster Prevention and Reduction,Yinchuan,Ningxia 750002,China;Agricultural Economy and Information Technology Research Institute of Ningxia Academy of Agriculture and Forestry,Yinchuan,Ningxia 750002,China)

机构地区：[1]中国气象局旱区特色农业气象灾害监测预警与风险管理重点实验室,宁夏银川750002 [2]宁夏气象防灾减灾重点实验室,宁夏银川750002 [3]宁夏农林科学院农业经济与信息技术研究所,宁夏银川750002

出　　处：《山地农业生物学报》2022年第2期66-70,共5页Journal of Mountain Agriculture and Biology

基　　金：第五批“宁夏青年科技人才托举工程”项目;宁夏农林科学院全产业链创新示范项目(QCYL-2018-1102)。

摘　　要：为评估分析宁夏区域枸杞瘿螨危害的风险特征,探讨枸杞瘿螨致灾的气象因子指标,基于2013-2018年宁夏全区枸杞瘿螨田间自动采集器、病虫害移动采集系统监测资料,应用Maxent模型及ArcGIS技术,构建了枸杞瘿螨适生分布模型,分析了生态环境因子对枸杞瘿螨分布的影响。结果表明:对枸杞瘿螨分布影响较大的环境变量主要为6月、7月、8月、9月降水量、10月的平均气温和最高地温;构建的枸杞瘿螨潜在地理分布模型的AUC值达到0.950,属“非常好”的标准,可用于研究枸杞瘿螨适生性地理分布研究;枸杞瘿螨的适生区范围主要在中宁核心枸杞产区和银川市贺兰山沿山枸杞产区;枸杞瘿螨高、次高、中等气候风险区的面积分别为1323.01 km^(2)、2779.96 km^(2)、4346.14 km^(2),分别占宁夏国土总面积的1.99%、4.19%、6.55%。研究结果对于制定合理防控措施、控制枸杞瘿螨灾害具有重要的指导意义。In order to evaluate the damage risk of Aceria macrodonis Keifer in Ningxia,and to explore impact of meteorological factors on distribution of A.macrodonis,a suitable distribution model of A.macrodonis was constructed by Maxent model and ArcGIS,based on the monitoring data of A.macrodonis in Ningxia from^(2)013 to 2018.The effects of ecological factors on the distribution of A.macrodonis were analyzed.The results showed that precipitation in June,July,August and September,mean temperature and maximum ground temperature in October were the main environment variables that affected the distribution of A.macrodonis.The AUC value of potential distribution model of A.macrodonis reached 0.950,which means the model can be used to study ecological suitability of A.macrodonis.The suitable areas of A.macrodonis were mainly in the core producing areas of lycium barbarum in Zhongning and areas along Helanshan,Yinchuan.The area of the high,second high and medium climate risk areas of A.macrodonis were 1323.01 km^(2),2779.96 km^(2) and 4346.14 km^(2),respectively,accounting for 1.99%,4.19%and 6.55%of the total land area of Ningxia.The results have important guiding significance for formulating reasonable prevention and control measures and controlling the A.macrodonis.

关 键 词：枸杞 枸杞瘿螨 Maxent模型 适生性分析 

分 类 号：S431.9[农业科学—农业昆虫与害虫防治]