“新基建”的利弊得失:历史经验的视角  

Advantages and Disadvantages of“New Infrastructure Construction”:Perspective of Historical Experience

作　　者：高兴佑[1,2] 陈渝 GAO Xingyou;CHEN Yu(School of Economics and Management,Qujing Normal Universiy,Quyjing,Yunnan 655011,China;School of Man-agement and Economics,Kunming University of Science and Technology,Kunming,Yunnan 650093,China)

机构地区：[1]曲靖师范学院经济与管理学院,云南曲靖655011 [2]昆明理工大学管理与经济学院,云南昆明650093

出　　处：《宜宾学院学报》2022年第2期11-20,共10页Journal of Yibin University

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目“基于示能性视角的信息系统有效使用研究:维度、影响因素和形成机制”(71461016)。

摘　　要：为应对新冠肺炎疫情造成的经济下行和失业增加的压力,国家出台了新型基础设施建设的经济刺激方案。1997年亚洲金融危机和2008年国际金融危机期间,我国出台的经济刺激方案,在经济刺激手段和强度方面与"新基建"具有相似性,因而可以通过历史的经验来预测"新基建"能否拉动GDP和就业,会不会引起通货膨胀和债务风险。研究结果显示:"新基建"对GDP的拉动效果显著且不会引起通货膨胀,但对就业拉动不显著,需要注意的是"新基建"存在债务风险,应该审慎适度有监管地推进"新基建"。总的来说,"新基建"的正面效应大于负面影响,对促使我国经济走出短期衰退具有强力作用,而且对我国经济的高质量可持续发展具有长远正向影响。In response to the pressure of economic downturn and increased unemployment caused by the COVID-19 epidemic,China has introduced an economic stimulus package for a new type of infrastructure construction.During the Asian financial crisis in 1997 and the international financial crisis in 2008,the economic stimulus package issued by China is similar to the“new infrastructure construction”in terms of economic stimulus means and intensity,so historical experience could be used to predict whether the“new infrastructure construction”can stimulate GDP and employment,and whether it will cause inflation and debt risks.The results show that the pulling effect of“new infrastructure construction”on GDP is significant and will not cause inflation,but it is not significant on employment.It should be noted that“new infrastructure construction”has debt risk,so it should be prudently and appropriately supervised to promote“new infrastructure construction”.Generally speaking,the positive effect of“new infrastructure construction”is greater than the negative effect,which not only plays a strong role in promoting China’s economy out of short-term recession,but also has a long-term positive impact on the high-quality and sustainable development of China’s economy.

关 键 词：新基建 中国经济 历史经验 亚洲金融危机 国际金融危机 

分 类 号：F812.45[经济管理—财政学]