基于AHP-贝叶斯公式的目标热效应毁伤效果分析  

Analysis of Target Thermal Damage Effect Based on AHP-Bayesian Formula

作　　者：张肖羽 张琳[2] 汪文峰[2] ZHANG Xiaoyu;ZHANG Lin;WANG Wenfeng(Graduate School of Air Force Engineering University, Xi’an 710051, China;Air Defense and Missile Defense College, Air Force Engineering University, Xi’an 710051, China)

机构地区：[1]空军工程大学研究生院,陕西西安710051 [2]空军工程大学防空反导学院,陕西西安710051

出　　处：《信息工程大学学报》2021年第6期764-768,共5页Journal of Information Engineering University

摘　　要：随着新概念武器迅速发展,利用热效应原理对目标进行毁伤成为一种重要方式。在对目标热效应毁伤效果进行研究的基础上,提出基于AHP-贝叶斯公式的分析方法,首先从热效应毁伤的角度出发研究目标毁伤机理,再通过层次分析法(AHP)对目标进行分解量化,建立指标体系,然后基于贝叶斯公式进行毁伤概率计算,最后通过算例分析得出目标各分系统、各部位、各毁伤机理作用下的毁伤概率关系,较为全面地反映了热效应毁伤效果,有利于依据结论采取相应的打击或防护策略。Along with the rapid development of new concept weapon,using the principle of thermal effect to damage target has become an important way.Based on the research of target thermal effect damage efficiency,we propose an analysis method based on AHP-Bayesian Formula.First,we study target damage mechanism from the perspective of the thermal effect damage,and then the analytic hierarchy process(AHP)is used to realize quantitative target decomposition.The index system is established,and then the damage probability is calculated based on Bayesian Formula.Finally,the damage probability relationship of each subsystem,each part and each damage mechanism of the target is obtained through the analysis of calculation examples,which reflects the damage effect of thermal effect in a more comprehensive way.Further,the conclusion obtained in this paper is conducive to the adoption of corresponding strike or protection strategies.

关 键 词：毁伤机理 热效应 层次分析法 贝叶斯公式 

分 类 号：E917[军事]