调查结果如何误导我们的认识——以二孩生育意愿调查中的方法问题为例  

How Do the Findings Mislead Our Understanding:Take the Method in the Two-child Willingness Survey as an Example

作　　者：风笑天 FENG Xiaotian

机构地区：[1]广西师范大学政诰与公共管理学院,广西桂林541001 [2]南京大学

出　　处：《湖南师范大学社会科学学报》2022年第1期41-49,共9页Journal of Social Science of Hunan Normal University

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目“后独生子女时代中的独生子女问题研究”(21BSH009)。

摘　　要：结合现有二孩生育意愿的调查结果,从研究方法的角度,分析若干影响调查结果可靠性和准确性的因素后的研究表明,由于在调查对象、调查范围、样本规模、测量问题等方面的不同,同一主题的众多调查结果并不一定能给出确切的、一致的答案;对于非常分散的数据结果,平均值的价值会受到影响;调查中给出"没想好"的答案符合实际情况,但统计时需要对其进行调整处理;而测量指标的效度、调查关键变量及调查对象的界定,以及调查时间、调查对象、测量问题等因素之间的共同作用等,都会对调查结果的正确性产生较大的影响。On the basis of the results of the existing survey on people’s willingness to bear a second child,this paper analyzes some factors affecting the reliability and accuracy of the survey results from the perspective of research methods.The research shows that due to the difference in survey object,survey scope,sample size,measurement problems and other aspects,many survey results on the same topic may not give exact and consistent answers.For very scattered data results,the value of the average will be affected.The answer of“not well thought out”in the survey is in line with the actual situation,but it needs to be adjusted during statistics.The validity of the measurement index,the definition of the key variables of the survey and the survey object,as well as the joint effect of the survey time,the survey object,the survey question and other factors will have a great influence on the accuracy of the survey results.

关 键 词：社会调查 生育意愿 研究方法 

分 类 号：C924.21[社会学—人口学]