经济政策不确定性与商业银行信贷行为研究——银行业景气度的调节作用  

Economic Policy Uncertainty and Commercial Bank Credit—The Regulating Effect of Banking Industry's Prosperity Degree

作　　者：张瑞稳[1] 邢春妮 ZHANG Rui-wen;XING Chun-ni(School of Management,University of Science and Technology of China,Hefei 230026,Anhui,China)

机构地区：[1]中国科学技术大学管理学院,安徽合肥230026

出　　处：《华南理工大学学报（社会科学版）》2022年第1期48-57,共10页Journal of South China University of Technology(Social Science Edition)

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目“基于内生经济增长理论的中国式财政分权效应研究”(71573240)。

摘　　要：基于2007—2019年中国111家商业银行的面板数据,探讨了经济政策不确定性对银行信用风险与信贷增长的影响以及银行业景气度的调节作用。研究发现,经济政策不确定性会加剧银行的信用风险,但银行业景气度的提升会削弱这种影响,而经济政策不确定性则会抑制银行的贷款增长。异质性分析发现,经济政策不确定性对国有商业银行信用风险没有显著影响;对股份制商业银行信用风险的影响是抑制的;对城市商业银行则有正向影响。高水平下的经济政策不确定性会抑制股份制商业银行和城市商业银行的贷款增长,但反而会加快国有商业银行贷款的扩张速度。This paper selects the panel data of 111 Chinese commercial banks from 2013 to 2018 to explore the impact of economic policy uncertainty on bank credit risk and credit growth,and the regulating effect of the banking industry's prosperity degree.The result shows that,economic policy uncertainty will aggravate the credit risk of banks,but the increasing of the banking industry's prosperity degree will weaken this impact,and economic policy uncertainty will inhibit the growth of bank loans.Our heterogeneity analysis finds that,economic policy uncertainty has no impact on the credit risk of state-owned banks,has a restraining impact on the credit risk of stock-holding banks,and has a positive impact on city commercial banks.The high level of economic policy uncertainty will restrain the credit growth of stock-holding banks and city commercial banks,but accelerate the rate of loan expansion for the state-owned banks.

关 键 词：经济政策不确定性 信用风险 信贷增长 银行业景气度 商业银行 

分 类 号：F832[经济管理—金融学]