我国养老保险制度并轨对家庭储蓄率及消费的影响——2015年机关事业单位养老保险改革的经验证据  

The Impact of the Unification of Endowment Insurance System on Household Saving Rate and Consumption:Evidences from the Endowment Insurance Reform of Government and Public Institutions in 2015

作　　者：李晓飞 臧旭恒[1,2] 姚健 Li Xiaofei;Zang Xuheng;Yao Jian(School of Economics,Shandong University,Jinan 250100,China;School of Economics,Shandong Normal University,Jinan 250358,China)

机构地区：[1]山东大学经济学院,250100 [2]山东师范大学经济学院,250358

出　　处：《南开经济研究》2021年第6期106-126,共21页Nankai Economic Studies

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目“供给侧结构性改革、异质性消费者行为与经济增长内生动力研究”(17ZDA038);国家自然科学基金面上项目“异质性消费者的界定、行为度量及供需结构有效匹配研究”(71773063)的资助。

摘　　要：2015年机关事业单位养老保险制度改革建立了与城镇职工统一的养老保险制度。本文理论分析了养老保险制度改革对参保家庭储蓄率及消费的影响,并基于中国家庭金融调查(CHFS)2013年和2017年构成的短期面板数据,利用准实验方法(DID和PSMDID)进行实证分析。研究发现,制度并轨改革通过改变家庭养老金收入预期和提高家庭未来养老风险,显著提升了机关事业单位参保家庭的储蓄率,降低了家庭人均消费水平,但改革的储蓄与消费效应存在一定程度的时滞性。在消费类型方面,改革主要减少了参保家庭的食品及在外就餐、衣着和教育文化娱乐类消费。异质性分析方面,此改革对低财富、女性户主、户主受教育程度较高、户主年龄为40岁~50岁和西部省份等家庭的影响更大。替换改革年份、替换实验组和替换被解释变量的安慰剂检验,以及利用中国家庭追踪调查(CFPS)2014年、2016年和2018年数据的稳健性检验均支持了上述结论。鉴于此,我国养老金制度改革应使实施的政策更加公开透明,做好改革的事前预测及事后评估。同时,在深化职工养老保险制度改革的过程中,应逐步弱化个人账户作用,提升居民金融素养,加快推进基本养老保险全国统筹。In 2015,the government launched a reform of endowment insurance system in government and public institutions,established a unified pension system for urban workers.We theoretically analyze the impact of reform on saving rate and consumption of insured households. Based on the short-term panel data of CHFS 2013 and CHFS 2017,we use quasi-experimental methods(DID and PSM-DID)to make empirically study. The results show that,by changing family pension expectations and increasing the risk of family pension in the future,the reform have raised the saving rate of the insured households and reduced the per capita consumption of the households. In terms of consumption pattern,the reform has mainly reduced the food,clothing and entertainment consumption of the insured households. The heterogeneity analysis shows that,the impact of the reform on the households with low wealth,female,higher education level,aged 40-50 years old and families in western provinces are greater. Placebo test of replacing the year of reform,replacing the experimental group,and replacing the explained variable,and the robustness test using CFPS 2014,CFPS 2016 and CFPS 2018 supports the above conclusions. Therefore,the policy of pension system reform should be more open and transparent,the government should do a good job in predictions beforehand and post-assessment. At the same time,in the process of deepening the reform of the workers? pension system,we should gradually weaken the individual account,improve the residents? financial knowledge,and speed up the overall planning of the basic pension system.

关 键 词：机关事业单位养老保险制度改革 制度并轨 家庭储蓄率 居民消费 

分 类 号：F842.67[经济管理—保险] F126.1