基于置信水平的重大突发事件网络舆情引导效果评估研究  

The Evaluation of Internet Public Opinion Guidance Effect for Serious Emergencies Based on Confidence Level

作　　者：程铁军 倪聪 冯兰萍[2] CHENG Tie-jun;NI Cong;FENG Lan-ping(School of Economics,Nanjing University of Posts and Telecommunications,Nanjing 210023,China;Business School,Hohai University,Changzhou 213000,China)

机构地区：[1]南京邮电大学经济学院,江苏南京210023 [2]河海大学商学院,江苏常州213000

出　　处：《情报科学》2022年第2期118-126,共9页Information Science

基　　金：国家社会科学基金青年项目“多元舆论场共存背景下重大突发事件舆情博弈和引导策略研究”(17CXW012)。

摘　　要：【目的/意义】在重大突发事件发生后,网络舆情的有效引导与否,既事关现场应急处置的成功,也关系着社会稳定与和谐。重大突发事件网络舆情引导效果的评估,对推动政府应急管理能力提升、促进突发事件网络舆情朝正向发展具有重要意义。【方法/过程】基于重大突发事件网络舆情的特点和引导的关注点,构建突发事件网络舆情引导效果指标体系,将专家置信水平与毕达哥拉斯模糊信息引入评估过程,构建引导效果评估模型。【结果/结论】对长江沉船、天津滨海爆炸和江苏响水爆炸三起事件的网络舆情引导进行分析和实证计算,验证了模型的有效性与实用性。【创新/局限】由于评估者对突发事件网络舆情变化和了解程度不同,在评价中难免具有犹豫性和不确定性特点,本文构建的群评估模型综合考虑了以上特征,具有一定的实践价值。限于指标数据的可获取性,本文涉及的评估指标可能不够全面,对评估具有一定的影响。【Purpose/significance】The effective guidance of online public opinion is not only related to the success of on-site emergency response but also related to social stability and harmony when the emergency happens.The evaluation of the effect of network public opinion guidance for emergencies is of great significance to promote the improvement of government emergency management capabilities and promote the positive development of emergencies network public opinion.【Method/process】Based on the characteristics of serious emergencies and the focus of guidance,construct an indicator system for the guidance effect of network public opinion on emergencies.introduce expert confidence levels and Pythagorean fuzzy information into the evaluation process,and build guidance effects Evaluation model.【Result/conclusion】The analysis and empirical calculations of the three incidents of the Yangtze River Shipwreck.Tianjin Binhai Explosion and Jiangsu Xiangshui Explosion have verified the effectiveness and practicability of the model.【Innovation/limitation】As evaluators have different understanding about the emergencies andt network public opinion changes.,they will be hesitated and uncertain in the evaluation.The group evaluation model constructed in this paper takes the above characteristics into consideration and has certain practical value.Limited to the availability of indicator data.the evaluation indicators involved in this article may not be comprehensive enough and have a certain impact on the evaluation.

关 键 词：重大突发事件 网络舆情 引导效果 置信水平 评估模型 

分 类 号：G206.3[文化科学—传播学]