长三角地区城乡融合发展水平测度及其时空特征分析  

The Measurement of the Urban-Rural Integration Development Level in the Yangtze River Delta Region and the Analysis of Its Spatio-Temporal Characteristics

作　　者：施建刚[1] 段锴丰 吴光东 SHI Jiangang;DUAN Kaifeng;WU Guangdong(School of Economics and Management, Tongji University, Shanghai 200092, China;School of Public Policy and Administration, Chongqing University, Chongqing 400044, China)

机构地区：[1]同济大学经济与管理学院,上海200092 [2]重庆大学公共管理学院,重庆400044

出　　处：《同济大学学报（社会科学版）》2022年第1期78-89,共12页Journal of Tongji University:Social Science Edition

基　　金：国家社会科学基金一般项目“长三角地区城乡融合发展动力机制与协同治理研究”(19BGL274).

摘　　要：城乡融合发展水平的科学测度是城乡关系问题由定性分析转向定量评估的基础。在科学把握城乡融合发展时代内涵的基础上,选取加速遗传算法投影寻踪模型测度了2003—2018年长三角地区27座中心区城市的城乡融合发展水平,并采用核密度估计、探索性空间分析、趋势面分析等方法对其城乡融合发展水平的时空特征进行了分析。研究发现:(1)在研究期内,长三角地区城乡融合发展水平总体上呈波动上升趋势;(2)苏州、无锡、上海的城乡融合发展水平明显高于其他城市,而安庆、池州、滁州则为城乡融合发展水平排名最后三位的城市;(3)该地区城乡融合发展水平空间分布存在显著的正向全局空间自相关性,且呈现出“弱相关→强相关→弱相关→强相关”的螺旋演进态势;(4)该地区城乡融合发展水平在东西方向和南北方向均大致呈现出“倒U型”的空间分异特征。The scientific measurement of the level of urban-rural integration development(URID)is the basis for the transition of urban-rural relationship study from qualitative analysis to quantitative assessment.Based on a scientific understanding of the connotation of URID,this paper measures the level of URID of 27 central cities in the Yangtze River Delta Region during 2003~2018 by applying the real coded accelerating genetic algorithm-projection pursuit classification(RAGA-PPC)method,and analyzes the spatio-temporal characteristics of URID by utilizing the methods including kernel density estimation,exploratory spatial data analysis and trend surface analysis.Results show that during the study period,the level of URID in the Yangtze River Delta Region shows a fluctuating upward trend;the level of URID in Suzhou,Wuxi and Shanghai is significantly higher than that of other cities,while Anqing,Chizhou and Chuzhou rank the last three places considering the level of URID;the spatial distribution of the level of URID in this region has significant positive global spatial autocorrelation,which shows a spiral evolution trend of“weak correlation→strong correlation→weak correlation→strong correlation”;the level of URID in this region roughly presents“inverted U-shaped”spatial differentiation characteristics in both the east-west direction and the north-south direction.

关 键 词：长三角 城乡融合发展 水平测度 时空特征 投影寻踪模型 

分 类 号：F299.27[经济管理—国民经济]