基于历史记录的赤潮灾害危险性区划方法的构建与应用  

Establishment and Application of the Method for Hazard Zoning of Red Tide Disaster based on Historical Records

作　　者：文世勇[1,2] 孙田力 王涛 李荣茂[4] 李飞 刘娜 WEN Shiyong;SUN Tianli;WANG Tao;LI Rongmao;LI Fei;LIU Na(National Marine Environmental Monitoring Center, Dalian 116023, China;State Environmental Protection Key Laboratory of Coastal Ecosystem, Dalian 116023, China;National Marine Hazard Mitigation Service, Beijing 100194, China;Fujian Fisheries Resources Monitoring Center, Fuzhou 350003, China)

机构地区：[1]国家海洋环境监测中心,辽宁大连116023 [2]生态环境部国家环境保护近岸海域生态环境重点实验室,辽宁大连116023 [3]自然资源部海洋减灾中心,北京100194 [4]福建省渔业资源监测中心,福建福州350003

出　　处：《灾害学》2022年第1期72-76,共5页Journal of Catastrophology

基　　金：国家重点研发计划“海洋环境安全保障”重点专项(2017YFC1404304);国家自然科学基金项目(41371494)。

摘　　要：利用福建省近岸海域1959—2018年的赤潮历史记录数据资料,在地理信息系统(Geographical Information System,GIS)平台下采用核密度估计函数(kernel density estimation)对赤潮历史记录数据中的赤潮发生频次、赤潮发生持续时间、赤潮面积和赤潮藻类毒性等参数进行了空间评估分析并根据赤潮灾害危险度区划方法得到未来5 a福建省近岸海域赤潮灾害危险性空间分布情况,同时创新性地提出赤潮危险性区划结果的验证方法。危险性区划结果表明未来5 a福建省近岸海域处于极高危险性区的海域主要有霞浦县近岸海域、连江县近岸海域、平潭县近岸东部海域及厦门市同安湾近岸海域。处于高危险性区的海域主要有福鼎市-霞浦县近岸海域、罗源县-连江县近岸海域、平潭县周边近岸海域东部海域、福清市南部-莆田东北部近岸海域、石狮市周边近岸海域及厦门市近岸海域,其余海域处于中危险性区和低危险性区。验证结果表明构建的区划方法和区划结果具有较好的合理性和可信性,区划结果将为福建省近岸海域赤潮灾害应急处置、纳污海域污染总量控制制定有效的管理措施提供科学依据,从而达到防灾减灾的目的,而且对指导海洋水产养殖、滨海旅游业规划等具有重要的科学意义。Red tide disaster is one of the three major marine disasters in China.Red tide has become one of the factors restricting the rapid development of China's marine economy.Disaster risk zoning is a necessary measure for effective red tide disaster prevention and mitigation and emergency management.Firstly,data was collected from harmful algal bloom(HAB)outbreaks in the Fujian Province coastal waters during 1959-2018.Secondly,the geostatistical tools and Kernel density estimation function in Geographic information system(GIS)were used to analyze the spatial distributions of the frequency of red tide disasters,the duration of the red tide disasters,area of red tide disasters,and the algae toxicity of red tide disasters.Thirdly,the spatial distribution of hazard zoning of red tide disaster in the coastal waters of Fujian Province is obtained according to the hazard zoning method of red tide disaster.Finally,the zoning results were verified by using the historical record data.The results show that:(1)four sea-areas in the very-high hazard degree zone:coastal waters of Xiapu County,coastal waters of Lianjiang County,Eastern waters of Pingtan County,Tongan bay waters of Xiamen City.(2)Six sea-areas in the high hazard degree zone:coastal waters of Fuding City-Xiapu County,coastal waters of Luoyuan County-Lianjiang County,Eastern waters of Pingtan County,coastal waters of Fuqing City-the northeast coastal waters of Putian,coastal waters of Shishi City,and coastal waters of Xiamen City.The rest of the sea areas are in the medium hazard degree zone and the low hazard degree zone.The verification results show that the constructed zoning method and zoning results have good rationality and credibility.The zoning results will provide scientific basis for the emergency disposal of red tide disasters in the coastal waters of Fujian Province and the formulation of effective management measures for the control of the total pollution in the polluted sea areas,so as to achieve the goal of disaster prevention and mitigation,and it is of

关 键 词：赤潮灾害 赤潮灾害历史记录 危险性区划 核密度估算 福建近岸海域 

分 类 号：P735[天文地球—海洋生物学] X43[天文地球—海洋科学]