地震发生时个体应急行为规律的探索性研究  

Exploratory research on the patterns of individual emergency behaviors during earthquakes

作　　者：李良[1] 李路云 LI Liang;LI Luyun(School of Economics and Management,Southwest Jiaotong University,Chengdu 610063,China)

机构地区：[1]西南交通大学经济管理学院,四川成都610063

出　　处：《管理工程学报》2022年第2期148-158,共11页Journal of Industrial Engineering and Engineering Management

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(7127115);教育部人文社会科学基金青年项目(12YJC630096)。

摘　　要：对紧急情况下个体行为的把握是应急管理的基础。个体在地震发生瞬间的行为对其能否成功避险、能否降低身体损伤和财产损失以及在逃生受困后能否维持较长时间以等待救援等具有直接的影响。本文采用定性和定量的混合研究策略探索了真实地震场景中人们的行为规律。本文首先按照扎根理论的研究程序,通过地震亲历者的深度访谈,分析了人们在紧急情况下的情绪反应、心理过程和行为决策,并据此构建了“地震发生瞬间人的应急行为模型”。然后对近年来地震发生瞬间的国内外视频记录信息进行搜集,通过对视频中人们的行为进行描述和编码,本文将视频中个体的动作和行为按其含义对应到“地震发生瞬间人的应急行为模型”。进而,本文通过贝叶斯网络的参数学习和精确推理获得地震发生瞬间人的应急行为的概率规律,并作为一个例子应用贝叶斯网络分析结果探究了性别对行为的影响。最后,本文针对地震灾害应急管理给出了建议。Knowledge about individual behaviors in earthquake emergencies serves as the basis of emergency management.At present,the earthquake disaster management literatures published at home and abroad cover some important issues,like pre-earthquake prediction,disaster prevention,and post-earthquake relief.These studies reveal that the effective implementation of coping strategies at the time of disasters,the allocation of rescue resources and the implementation of the rescue plans after disasters are inseparable from a deep understanding of human behaviors.In fact,many earthquake casualties are not directly resulted from the earthquake,but from individuals′failure to take rational and effective measures to avert hazards.Instead of any error in the knowledge acquired in daily life,the reason lies in the fact that the hazard avoidance guidance adopted is mainly from the perspective of engineering analysis,without taking people′s responses and behaviors into account,which leads to individuals′failure to follow the hazard avoidance guidance in emergencies.Therefore,emergency management should fully consider behavioral patterns of individuals in dangerous situations.However,due to difficulties in data acquisition during disasters,studies on individual behaviors in the event of an earthquake are still very rare.Intended to fill this gap,this paper studies individuals′immediate responses/behaviors to earthquakes and explores the patterns and characteristics of such behaviors,applying a qualitative and quantitative mixed research strategy,in which a two-step study was conducted on people′s behaviors in real seismic scenes.The first step is a qualitative analysis of interview data.In-depth interviews were conducted with 51 earthquake survivors by the theoretical sampling method and according to the procedure of grounded theory.The interview data were qualitatively studied,and the grounded theory of individual behaviors during earthquakes was developed,that is,a“seven-stage-three-cycle”model of individual emergency

关 键 词：地震 避险决策 混合研究策略 贝叶斯网 

分 类 号：C93[经济管理—管理学]