上海气温趋势与突变分析  

Analysis of temperature trend and abrupt change in Shanghai

作　　者：李新月 LI Xinyue(Shanghai University of International Business and Economics,Shanghai,201600 China)

机构地区：[1]上海对外经贸大学,上海201600

出　　处：《科技创新导报》2021年第30期47-50,共4页Science and Technology Innovation Herald

摘　　要：气温的变化影响着人们的生活和发展,气温的趋势和突变研究是气候变化的一个热点问题。通过参数方法线性回归,累积距平法和滑动t检验,非参数方法Mann—Kendall突变检验和有序聚类分析对上海1980—2020年的年平均气温,冬季和夏季年平均气温和极端天气出现的天数进行分析。上海近41年的平均气温是呈显著上升趋势的,并且每年以平均0.063℃的速度上升,而突变发生的时间是20世纪90年代末和2016年,冬季的平均气温突变的时间是20世纪80年代中期和20世纪90年代末,而夏季的平均气温和极端天气出现的天数得到的突变时间都是2000年前后。春季和秋季的气温与全年的平均气温变化情况相差不大,并且可以对其做一元线性回归,其气温倾向率分别是0.077℃/年、0.061℃/年。The change of temperature affects people's life and development,and the study of temperature trends and abrupt changes is a hot issue of climate change.The parameter method of linear regression,cumulative anomaly method and sliding t test,and non-parametric method of Mann-Kendall test and ordered cluster analysis are used to analyze the annual average temperature,the average temperature in winter and summer and days of extreme weather of Shanghai from 1980 to 2020.In the past 41 years,the average temperature of Shanghai has shown a significant upward trend,and it has risen at an average rate of 0.063°C each year,however the abrupt changes occurred in the late 1990s and 2016,the average temperature in winter abruptly occurred in the mid-1980s and late 1990s,and the average temperature in summer and the number of days of extreme weather are both around 2000.There is little difference between the temperature in spring and autumn and the average temperature in the whole year,and it can be linear regression,and the temperature tendency rate is 0.077,0.061℃/year,respectively.

关 键 词：Mann—Kendall 突变检验 有序聚类分析 滑动 T 检验 累积距平法 

分 类 号：P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]