经济增长、分工、制度、创新与城市  

Economic Growth,Division of Labor,Institution,Innovation and Cities

作　　者：赵坚[1] 李红雨 赵云毅 ZHAO Jian;LI Hong-yu;ZHAO Yun-yi(China Urbanization Research Center,Beijing Jiaotong University,Beijing 100044,China;School of Economics and Management,Beijing Jiaotong University,Beijing 100044,China;National Academy of Economic Security,Beijing Jiaotong University,Beijing 100044,China)

机构地区：[1]北京交通大学中国城镇化研究中心,北京100044 [2]北京交通大学经济管理学院,北京100044 [3]北京交通大学国家经济安全研究院,北京100044

出　　处：《北京交通大学学报（社会科学版）》2022年第1期44-68,共25页Journal of Beijing Jiaotong University(Social Sciences Edition)

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目“集约、智能、绿色、低碳的新型城镇化道路研究”(13&ZD026)的后续研究。

摘　　要：通过评析经济学对经济增长、分工、制度、创新与城市等基本范畴之间内在逻辑联系的研究,说明城市在创新和经济增长中的重要作用。新古典经济学偏离了斯密-杨格-熊彼特的逻辑主线。罗默内生增长模型的非凸性是以假定生产耐用品的设计知识可以实现指数型增长为基础;卢卡斯的人力资本理论实际上是人力资本外部效应理论,并由此说明城市在经济增长中的核心作用。诺斯则批评罗默和卢卡斯模型没有把制度的激励结构作为决定经济增长的最重要因素。新演化经济学研究能更好地解释城市在创新和经济增长中的作用。我们用中国285个地级以上城市的面板数据测算,发现中国城市的主要指标同样符合幂比例变化法则。进一步的“反事实假设”则发现,通过优化人口空间结构,我国2019年的GDP可以增加5.55%,专利申请(技术创新)会增加8.2%。This article,by examining the economics researches on the internal logical connections among economic growth,division of labor,institution,innovation,and cities,emphasizes the important role of cities in innovation and economic growth.Neoclassical economics deviates from the main logical line of Smith-Young-Schumpeter.The non-convexity of Romer's endogenous growth model is based on the assumption that the design knowledge for producer durables can achieve exponential growth,without explaining its rationality.Lucas's human capital theory is in fact a theory of external effects of human capital,which explains the central role of cities in economic growth.North criticizes the models of Romer and Lucas for not taking the incentive structure of the system as the most important factor in determining economic growth.New evolutionary economics research can better explain the role of cities in innovation and economic growth.We calculate the panel data of 285 cities at regional-level and above in China and find that the main indicators of cities in China also conform to West’s power scaling law.A further“counterfactual hypothesis”finds that by optimizing the spatial structure of population,China’s GDP in 2019 can increase by 5.55%and the number of patent applications(technological innovation)can increase by 8.2%.

关 键 词：新古典增长模型 制度 幂比例变化法则 相邻可能 城市化战略 

分 类 号：F299[经济管理—国民经济]