《禁止核武器条约》之困境及出路  

The Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons:Dilemmas and Solutions

作　　者：丁伊 DING Yi(Shanghai Institute for Global Security and Governance,Shanghai University of Political Science and Law,Shanghai,201701)

机构地区：[1]上海政法学院上海全球安全治理研究院,上海201701

出　　处：《国际安全研究》2022年第2期78-103,158,159,共28页Journal of International Security Studies

基　　金：2021年度上海政法学院青年科研基金项目“核扩散问题管控与中国对策研究”(项目编号:2021XQN26)的阶段性成果;上海市“一带一路”安全合作与中国海外利益保护协同创新中心的资助。

摘　　要：2021年1月22日起生效的《禁止核武器条约》致力于在全球范围内禁止核武器的拥有、研发、储存、转移、试验、使用或是威胁使用等行为,从而将核武器完全非法化。尽管《禁止核武器条约》反映了人道主义的关怀和无核世界的愿景,但该条约无论是在理论层面还是在现实层面都面临着不小的困境。从理论上看,《禁止核武器条约》以确立禁核规范来推动国际社会所有成员国弃核的逻辑基础并不牢固,因为规范可能退化甚至被颠覆,未必能够对国家产生强有力的约束。在现实层面,《禁止核武器条约》则因为全盘否定核威慑的重要性而遭到拥有核武器国家及其盟国的联合抵制,并暴露出该条约忽视部分国家的安全关切、损害国家自卫权利以及忽略裁军核查机制等不足。鉴于国际社会围绕《禁止核武器条约》产生了诸多争议,未来,该条约还是应当落脚到分步骤、渐进式的核裁军路线上来,需要在提供安全保证、区分禁核情形、建立核查机构,以及加强与不扩散国际机制兼容等方面进行完善,以促进当前核不扩散国际机制的改革和推动陷入停滞的核裁军进程的持续进行。The Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons(TPNW),which entered into force on January 22,2021,includes a comprehensive set of prohibitions on participating in any nuclear weapon activities,which encompass undertakings not to develop,test,produce,acquire,possess,stockpile,use or threaten to use nuclear weapons,thereby completely delegitimizing nuclear weapons in the international community.The author argues that although the Treaty embodies humanitarian concerns and the vision of a nuclear-free world,it still has significant limitations in the current international situation.From a theoretical point of view,the Treaty hopes to strengthen norms against nuclear weapons use by all countries of the international community.However,its logical basis is not secure in that norms are subject to regression or even subversion,thus not being able to produce strong constraints on states.On the practical level,the Treaty has been explicitly boycotted by some nuclear weapon states and their allies on the grounds that it is incompatible with the policy of nuclear deterrence.This rejection has also highlighted such defects of the Treaty as ignoring security concerns of some countries,impairing states’self-defense rights and overlooking nuclear disarmament verification mechanisms.In view of many disputes arising from the Treaty in the international community,the author proposes that the Treaty should return to a progressive route to comprehensive nuclear disarmament.In the future,the Treaty could be further improved in terms of providing security guarantees,distinguishing different scenarios of nuclear bans,establishing verification institutions and strengthening its compatibility with the existing nuclear non-proliferation regimes so as to facilitate reforms on those regimes and contribute to a possible breakthrough in the stalled nuclear disarmament process.

关 键 词：禁止核武器条约 禁核困境 核裁军 无核世界 

分 类 号：D815[政治法律—国际关系]