我国玉米进口现状及进口影响因素分析  

The analysis of status and influencing factors of China’s corn-importing

作　　者：左珊珊 王锐[1] ZUO Shan-shan;WANG Rui(School of Economics,Wuhan Polytechnic University,Wuhan 430023,China)

机构地区：[1]武汉轻工大学经济学院,湖北武汉430023

出　　处：《武汉轻工大学学报》2022年第1期77-83,共7页Journal of Wuhan Polytechnic University

基　　金：湖北省教育厅人文社科重点项目(编号:21D061).

摘　　要：本文先分析我国及世界玉米在生产、消费和贸易方面的现状,梳理可能影响我国玉米进口的因素,后依据2005—2019年,我国与美国、乌克兰、老挝和缅甸之间的玉米贸易数据,并构建我国玉米进口引力模型,探讨影响我国玉米进口的主要因素及其影响方向和影响程度。实证结果表明:出口国的玉米产量、价格优势和我国“一带一路”政策对我国玉米进口有显著促进作用;出口国的经济规模、人口及我国玉米替代品的进口量显著抑制我国玉米进口。我国玉米进口形势短期内不会出现反转,为缓解进口激增,结合实证结果从我国玉米供给和需求方面提出建议。This article begins with the comparative analysis of the current status of corn production,consumption and international trade between China and the world and the main factors that may affect Chinese corn-importing.Based on Chinese trade data of corn with United States,Ukraine,Laos and Myanmar from 2005 to 2019,the corn-importing gravity model is constructed to explore the main factors affecting Chinese corn-importing and its influencing direction and extent.The empirical results show that the corn output and price advantages of exporting countries and Chinese Belt and Road Initiative have significantly promoted China's corn imports,while the exporting countries'economic scale,population and China's corn substitute imports significantly inhibit China's corn imports.China’s corn import situation will not reverse in the short term.In order to alleviate the surge in imports,at the end of the article it makes recommendations from my China's corn supply and demand.

关 键 词：玉米进口 影响因素 引力模型 面板数据 

分 类 号：F560[经济管理—产业经济]