应对现代军事物流中深度不确定性的弹性方法  

A resilient approach to cope with deep uncertainty in modern military logistics

作　　者：张睿峰 ZHANG Ruifeng(Naval Logistics Academy,Tianjin 300450,China)

机构地区：[1]海军勤务学院,天津300450

出　　处：《国防科技》2022年第1期107-114,共8页National Defense Technology

摘　　要：现代军事物流在现代后勤建设中处于核心地位,对于保障打赢具有智能化特征的信息化局部战争发挥着重要的支撑作用,然而军队后勤转型持续深化的不确定性对现代军事物流产生了一定不利影响。本文首先着眼现代军事物流决策过程,分析了来源于决策主体、决策客体和决策环境的深度不确定性和亟需解决的问题,指出应该跳出传统风险管理的局限性,采用弹性方法加以应对;其次,在明确定义现代军事物流弹性的基础上,从阶段、策略、能力三个层面搭建现代军事物流弹性的概念框架;最后,提出应在事前、事中、事后阶段分别实施主动式策略、即时策略和被动式策略,以提高现代军事物流应对深度不确定性能力的建议。Modern military logistics is at the core of the construction of modern logistics,and plays an im⁃portant supporting role in information-based local wars with intelligent characteristics.Ever-deepening uncer⁃tainty,however,has an important impact on modern military logistics.This paper focuses on the decision-mak⁃ing process of modern military logistics to analyze the deep uncertainties derived from the subject,object and en⁃vironment of decision-making,identifies the problems that need to be solved,and argues that we should go be⁃yond the limitations of traditional risk management to adopt a resilient approach to cope with deep uncertainty.Afterwards,based on a clear definition of modern military logistics resilience,a corresponding conceptual frame⁃work is built at three levels:stage,strategy,and capability.Finally,it is proposed that proactive,immediate,and reactive strategies should be implemented in the ex-ante,concurrent,and ex-post phases,respectively,to im⁃prove the capability of modern military logistics to cope with deep uncertainty.

关 键 词：深度不确定性 现代军事物流 弹性 策略 

分 类 号：E234[军事—军事理论]