全球价值链背景下两岸贸易利益研究  

Research on the Bilateral Trade Benefits across the Strait in the Context of Global Value Chains

作　　者：曹小衡[1] 严晓玲 Cao Xiaoheng;Yan Xiaoling

机构地区：[1]南开大学台湾经济研究所,天津300071 [2]南开大学经济学院,天津300071

出　　处：《台湾研究集刊》2022年第1期100-121,共22页Taiwan Research Journal

基　　金：2017年度国家社科基金一般项目“以供给侧结构性改革迈向中高端水平的理论创新与路径选择研究”(17BJL032)。

摘　　要：两岸贸易具有很强的互补性,这是两岸经济融合发展的基础。全球价值链分工体系的发展使增加值贸易核算比传统贸易总值统计更能反映两岸贸易真实情况,基于此方法对两岸贸易进行更为精准的研究有助于开拓两岸经济进一步深化合作的新空间。通过2016版WIOD数据库,使用直接增加值出口、前向联系增加值出口、后向联系增加值出口三种口径全面分析两岸贸易利益,并结合增加值出口率、全球价值链位置以及新显性比较优势等,从全球价值链背景下两岸获取贸易利益能力的角度研究两岸贸易关系,发现:(1)台湾对大陆的贸易顺差中自身真实贸易利益占50%左右;(2)大陆的初级产业与制造业贸易获利能力强于台湾;(3)台湾服务业贸易获利能力强于大陆,两岸货物贸易对服务贸易有较强的带动作用。由此可知,从贸易角度考虑,未来两岸应在进一步提升货物贸易的基础上强化两岸服务业合作,这将有助于扩大两岸优势互补格局,增加两岸贸易利益获得和深化两岸经济融合。Trades across the Strait have great complementarities which works as the basis for economic integration and development.The development of the global value chain makes the value-added trade more able to reflect accurately the real situation of trade between the mainland and Taiwan than the traditional total trade value statistics.A study adopting this method to examine the trade between the mainland and Taiwan will help to create new space for further and deeper economic cooperation.Through the 2016 version of the WIOD database,we employ three calibers including direct value-added exports,forward-linked value-added exports,and backward-linked value-added exports to analyze the trade benefits of the mainland and Taiwan.Value-added export rates,global value chain positions as well as the new revealed comparative advantages are included to study the trade relationship across the Strait from the perspective of the ability to obtain trade benefits in the context of global value chains.Findings suggest that:(1)Taiwan’s true trade benefits account for about 50%of its trade surplus with the mainland.(2)The ability of the mainland’s primary industries and manufacturing industries to gain trade benefits is stronger than that of Taiwan.(3)The trade in goods between the mainland and Taiwan has a strong leading role in service trade and Taiwan’s service industry has a stronger ability to gain trade benefits than that of the mainland.We think that,from the perspective of trade,the mainland and Taiwan should strengthen the cooperation of service industry on top of further enhancing trade in goods in the future.This will help amplify the complementary advantages,increase the gains of trade benefits and deepen economic integration across the Strait.

关 键 词：全球价值链 两岸贸易利益 增加值出口率 全球价值链位置 显性比较优势 

分 类 号：F127[经济管理—世界经济]