“二孩政策”下辽宁省城市居民生育意愿及影响因素  

Fertility intention and influencing factors under“two-child policy”among urban residents in Liaoning province,2013-2017:a CGSS-data analysis

作　　者：满小欧[1] 李贺云 杨扬 MAN Xiao-ou;LI He-yun;YANG Yang(School of Humanities and Law,Northeastern University,Shenyang,Liaoning Province 110169,China)

机构地区：[1]东北大学文法学院社会保障研究所,辽宁沈阳110169

出　　处：《中国公共卫生》2022年第2期224-227,共4页Chinese Journal of Public Health

基　　金：辽宁省社会科学规划基金(L20BGL004)。

摘　　要：目的分析"二孩政策"下辽宁省城市居民生育意愿及影响因素,研究造成辽宁省超低生育率的潜在原因,为完善鼓励生育政策提供参考。方法采用"中国综合社会调查(CGSS)"2013—2017年的面板数据,从中抽取618名18~49岁辽宁省城市居民相关数据,重点分析"二孩政策"下辽宁省城市居民生育意愿及影响因素。结果辽宁省18~49岁城市居民2013—2017年总体理想生育子女数量为1.71孩次。理想生育性别男孩为0.84孩次,女孩为0.89孩次;理想生育数量为2个孩子的比例最大(57.0%)。从不同特征群体生育意愿来看,26~33岁城市居民(1.79孩次)、受教育程度为大专及以上城市居民(1.81孩次)、高收入群体(1.80孩次)的理想生育子女数量高于其同伴群体。个体的年龄、性别、教育程度、婚姻状况、养老保险、工作单位性质、养老观念、生育观念因素对生育意愿影响显著(均P<0.05)。时间效应分析显示,相比于2013年,2017年生育意愿为2013年的1.067倍,差异显著。结论二孩政策时期,尤其是全面二孩政策一定程度促进了受政策影响群体生育意愿的释放,但生育意愿受个体、社会经济、生育观念等多重因素影响,鼓励生育应在准确把握上述因素的基础上"精准施策"。Objective To examine fertility intention and its associates under the“two-child policy”and to explore possible causes of ultra-low fertility rate among urban residents in Liaoning province to provide references for developing relevant policies on fertility encouragement.Methods The data on 618 Liaoning province urban residents aged 18-49 years were extracted from three waves of Chinese General Social Survey(CGSS)conducted in 2013,2015,and 2017.Stata14.0 software was used in general demographic descriptive statistical analysis and Poisson regression analysis on fertility intention and its influencing factors before and after the implementation of“two-child policy”in 2017.Results For all the residents surveyed,the reported ideal number of children was 1.71 and that of gender preference was 0.84 for boy and 0.89 for girl.Of the residents,57.0%considered two children being the ideal number for their families.The higher ideal numbers of children reported by subgroup residents were 1.79 for 26-33 years old residents,1.81 for the residents with the education of college and above,and 1.80 for the residents with personal annual income of 40000 RMB yuan and more,respectively.The significant influencing factors for fertility intention included age,gender,education,marriage status,endowment insurance,occupation,pension concept,and attitude towards child bearing(P<0.05 for all).Time effect analysis showed that the fertility intention of the residents was significantly higher(EXP[β]=1.067)in 2017 compared with that in 2013.Conclusion The two-child policy,especially the comprehensive two-child policy,has promoted the fertility intention of 18-49 years old urban residents in Liaoning province to a certain extent,but the fertility intention is affected by multiple individual and social factors.The results suggest that targeted strategies need to be developed to encourage fertility intention of the residents.

关 键 词：二孩政策 城市居民 生育意愿 影响因素 

分 类 号：C924[社会学—人口学]