区域对外贸易与产业转型升级相关性研究--京津冀协同发展视角  

Research on the Correlation between Regional Foreign Trade and Industrial Transformation and Upgrading--From the Perspective of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Collaborative Development

作　　者：董树功[1] 王亚玲 DONG Shu-gong;WANG Ya-ling(Tianjin University of Technology and Education,Tianjin 300222)

机构地区：[1]天津职业技术师范大学经济与管理学院,天津300222

出　　处：《经济论坛》2022年第3期67-78,共12页Economic Forum

基　　金：天津市教委社会科学重大项目“构建以信用为基础的新型监管机制研究”(2020JWZD15)。

摘　　要：本文在京津冀区域协同发展视角下探讨区域对外贸易与产业转型升级之间的关系,基于京津冀区域2005-2018年时间序列数据,分析区域对外贸易发展现状,采用产业超前系数、修正的Lilien指数模型及More值测定模型分析京津冀地区历年产业结构动态发展过程,并通过VAR模型及格兰杰因果检验探析京津冀区域产业转型升级与对外贸易的相关性。结果表明:京津冀区域对外贸易与产业发展紧密相关,外贸进出口结构变化对产业结构转型优化有一定的促进作用。因此,应从经济发展全局角度合理规划外贸结构与产业结构,通过二者的持续良性互动,实现产业体系与外贸体系双优化发展。This paper explores the relationship between regional foreign trade and industrial transformation and upgrading from the perspective of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei collaborative development.Based on the time series data of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region from 2005 to 2018,this paper analyzes the current situation of regional foreign trade development,and analyzes the dynamic development process of industrial structure of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region over the years by using industry leading coefficient,modified Lilien index model and More Value Measurement Model,and uses VAR model and Granger causality test to explore and analyze the correlation between industrial transformation and upgrading and foreign trade in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region.The results show that Beijing Tianjin-Hebei region foreign trade is closely related to industrial development,and the change of foreign trade import and export structure can promote the transformation and optimization of industrial structure to a certain extent.Therefore,foreign trade structure and industrial structure should be rationally planned from the overall perspective of economic development so as to realize the double-optimization development of industrial system and foreign trade system through the continuous and benign interaction between them.

关 键 词：京津冀 产业结构 对外贸易 格兰杰因果检验 

分 类 号：F061.5[经济管理—政治经济学]