基于系统动力学的机动车限行政策效应研究--以北京市为例  

Research on the Effect of Vehicle Restriction Policy Based on System Dynamics

作　　者：王亚伟[1] 钱子航 WANG Yawei;QIAN Zihang(School of Information and Management Sciences,Henan Agricultural University,Zhengzhou 450046,China)

机构地区：[1]河南农业大学信息与管理科学学院,郑州450046

出　　处：《河南科学》2022年第2期179-191,共13页Henan Science

基　　金：河南省高等学校重点科研项目资助计划(17A630028);河南省教育厅人文社会科学项目(2017-ZZJH-237)。

摘　　要：基于城市交通日益拥堵的现状,运用系统动力学与新陈代谢原理相结合的方法构建了一个城市交通系统模型.在对模型进行测试与检验以确保模型的有效性后,设置了载客汽车限行模式、载货汽车限行模式与组合政策模式3种情景模型,并对模型中的主要变量进行动态仿真与决策分析.结果发现:对载客汽车实施限行政策短期内能够缓解交通问题,但从长期来看存在副作用;对载货汽车实施限行政策总体来说弊大于利,因此不建议对载货汽车实施限行政策;对载客汽车实施限行限购的组合政策效果较为理想.根据仿真结果,提出了相应的政策建议.Urban traffic problems are becoming increasingly prominent.Based on this situation,this paper constructs an urban traffic system model by combining system dynamics and metabolism theory.After testing and verifying the model to ensure the validity of the model,three scenario models including passenger vehicle restriction mode,cargo vehicle restriction mode and combined policy mode were set up to carry out dynamic simulation and decision analysis on the main variables in the model.The results showed that the implementation of traffic restriction policy for passenger vehicle can alleviate traffic problems in the short term,but there are side effects in the long term.The disadvantages of implementing the traffic restriction policy for cargo vehicle outweigh the advantages,so it is not recommended to implement the policy for cargo vehicle.The effect of the combined policy of traffic restriction and purchase restriction on passenger vehicle is relatively ideal.According to the simulation results,we put forward the corresponding policy suggestions.

关 键 词：系统动力学 限行政策 城市交通系统模型 城市物流 

分 类 号：N941.3[自然科学总论—系统科学] U491[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]