基于供需平衡分析的玉林市水资源承载力研究  

Study on Water Resources Carrying Capacity of Yulin City Based on Supply-Demand Balance Analysis

作　　者：王菲 彭湘 王丽影[1,2] 马卓荦[1,2] WANG Fei;PENG Xiang;WANG Liying;MA Zhuoluo(China Pearl River Water Resource Planning Surveying and Designing Co., Ltd., Guangzhou 510610, China;The Center of Hydro-ecology of Pearl River Water Resources Commission of the Ministry of Water Resources, Guangzhou 510610, China)

机构地区：[1]中水珠江规划勘测设计有限公司,广州510610 [2]水利部珠江水利委员会水生态工程中心,广州510610

出　　处：《广东水利水电》2022年第3期51-57,共7页Guangdong Water Resources and Hydropower

基　　金：广东省水利科技创新项目(编号:2020-26)。

摘　　要：以玉林市为研究区域,采用水利部现行的水资源承载力评价方法,对玉林市现状水资源承载力进行了综合评价。对玉林市不同规划年(2025年、2035年)水资源供需平衡进行预测,引入水资源平衡指数和水资源负载指数,计算了玉林市未来的水资源承载力。结果表明,玉林市现状水资源承载能力已趋于临界状态,主要制约因素为水资源量不足,随着经济社会发展,面临的压力越来越大,必须考虑节水、外调水和优化产业布局,以解决供需矛盾、提高水资源承载能力。Taking Yulin City as the research area,the present situation of water resources carrying capacity in Yulin City was comprehensively evaluated by the national trial evaluation method of water resources carrying capacity.Based on the prediction of water resources supply and demand balance in different planning years(2025 and 2035),the water resources balance index and water resources load index are introduced to calculate the future water resources carrying capacity of Yulin city.The results show that the carrying capacity of water resources in Yulin City has tended to be critical,the main constraint factor is the shortage of water resources.With the development of economy and society,the pressure is increasing.Water saving,external water transfer and optimization of industrial layout must be considered to solve the contradiction between supply and demand and improve the water resources carrying capacity.

关 键 词：水资源承载力 需水量 供水量 供需平衡 

分 类 号：TV213.4[水利工程—水文学及水资源]