管道腐蚀速率随时间变化的改进DGM(1,1)模型建立与验证  

Establishment and validation of the improved DGM(1,1)model for pipeline corrosion rate over time

作　　者：靳文博 腰世哲[3] 金玉俊 赵军 毕刚 JIN Wen-bo;YAO Shi-zhe;JIN Yu-jun;ZHAO Jun;BI Gang(Shaanxi Key Laboratory of Advanced Stimulation Technology for Oil&Gas Reservoirs,Xi'an 710065,China;College of Petroleum Engineering,Xi'an Shiyou University,Xi'an 710065,China;Yuji Pipe Branch of Gas Company,Sinopec,Puyang 457000,Henan,China;Chang Qing Oilfield Company Oil Production Plant NO.3,Yinchuan 750003,China)

机构地区：[1]陕西省油气田特种增产技术重点实验室,西安710065 [2]西安石油大学石油工程学院,西安710065 [3]中国石油化工股份有限公司天然气榆济管道分公司,河南濮阳457000 [4]长庆油田公司第三采油厂,银川750003

出　　处：《安全与环境学报》2022年第1期77-83,共7页Journal of Safety and Environment

基　　金：陕西省自然科学基础研究计划青年项目(2019JQ-403)。

摘　　要：为了进一步探究管道腐蚀速率随时间的变化规律,采用灰色系统理论建立了改进DGM(1,1)模型。以具有振荡特性的不同时间下管道腐蚀速率实测数据为研究对象,在分析DGM(1,1)模型的基本原理和建模步骤的基础上,引入弱化缓冲算子D_(1)和D_(2)对该模型进行改进,对比分析了传统DGM(1,1)模型和改进DGM(1,1)模型的精度。结果表明:对于不同的腐蚀速率实测数据而言,传统模型计算值和实测值的平均相对误差差异较大;原始序列经过缓冲算子D_(1)和D_(2)作用后,所得改进DGM(1,1)模型一和DGM(1,1)模型二的精度均高于传统模型,其中改进DGM(1,1)模型二的精度最高;应用改进DGM(1,1)模型研究具有振荡特性的管道腐蚀速率完全可行,且该模型具有精度高、易于计算的优点。To further explore the law of pipeline corrosion rate over time,the improved DGM(1,1)models were built by using grey system theory.The original data series were processed using the developed weakening buffer operators D_(1) and D_(2).Based on the DGM(1,1)model,the improved DGM(1,1)model 1 and DGM(1,1)model 2 of pipeline corrosion rate over time were established.Based on the corrosion rate data of an in-service pipeline(case 1)and a sewage reinjection pipeline(case 2),the differences between the calculation results of the established model and the traditional model were compared.The results of case 1 show that the average relative error between the calculated value and the measured value of the traditional DGM(1,1)model is 1.7272%.While the errors of the improved model 1 and improved model 2 are 0.7736%and 0.4439%,respectively.Therefore,the accuracy of the improved models is higher than that of the traditional DGM(1,1)model.The results of case 2 show that the maximum relative error between the calculated value and the measured value of the traditional DGM(1,1)model is very large,and the average relative error is 12.415%.The maximum relative errors(15.3176%and 7.2829%)and the average relative errors(5.2611%and 2.5289%)of the improved model 1 and model 2 are significantly reduced due to the buffer operators D_(1) and D_(2).Therefore,the improved models have higher accuracy than the traditional DGM(1,1)model.In general,the average relative errors between the calculated results and the measured values of the traditional model under different corrosion rate data are quite different.The accuracy of the improved model 2 is the highest,followed by the improved model 1,while the accuracy of the traditional model is poor.The weakening buffer operator can be effectively applied to the grey model of pipeline corrosion rate changing with time,which has strong theoretical and practical application value.

关 键 词：安全工程 腐蚀速率 缓冲算子 改进DGM(1 1)模型 模型精度 

分 类 号：X93[环境科学与工程—安全科学]