基于系统动力学模型的青岛市水资源承载力研究  

Simulation of Water Resources Carrying Capacity Based on a System Dynamic Model in Qingdao

作　　者：王琳[1,2] 杨玲 WANG Lin;YANG Ling(College of Environmental Science and Engineering,Ocean University of China,Qingdao 266100,China;Key Laboratory of Marine Environment and Ecology,Ministry of Education,Qingdao 266100,China)

机构地区：[1]中国海洋大学环境科学与工程学院,山东青岛266100 [2]中国海洋大学海洋环境与生态教育部重点实验室,山东青岛266100

出　　处：《数学的实践与认识》2022年第2期1-11,共11页Mathematics in Practice and Theory

基　　金：国家重点研发计划项目(2018YFC0408000,2018YFC0408004)。

摘　　要：在全面分析青岛市水资源现状的基础上,利用系统动力学方法建立了青岛市水资源承载力仿真模型,并对模型的有效性进行了检验.通过改变模型相关决策参数,仿真模拟了自然延续型、经济发展型、节水发展型、综合发展型4种不同方案下青岛市2011-2030年水资源承载力的动态变化情况.结果表明,综合发展型方案是保证青岛市水资源可持续利用的最可行方案.On the basis of comprehensive analysis of the water resources in Qingdao,the system dynamics(SD) model of water resources carrying capacity of Qingdao is established by system dynamics method,and the validity of the model is tested.By changing related decision parameters of the model,the dynamic changes of the water resources carrying capacity of Qingdao in the 2011-2030 years under the 4 different schemes of natural continuity,economic development,water-saving and comprehensive development are simulated.It is concluded that the comprehensive development plan is the most feasible one to improve the water resources carrying capacity of Qingdao.

关 键 词：系统动力学模型 青岛市 水资源承载力 

分 类 号：TV213.4[水利工程—水文学及水资源]