中国城市资本回报率的“俱乐部收敛”现象及其原因  

The Phenomenon of “Club Convergence” of the Return of Capital in Chinese Cities and Its Causes

作　　者：李猛[1] 黄振宇 Li Meng;Huang Zhenyu(Department of Economics,Party School of Shanghai Committee of CPC,Shanghai 200233,China)

机构地区：[1]中共上海市委党校经济学教研部,上海200233

出　　处：《浙江大学学报（人文社会科学版）》2022年第1期136-151,共16页Journal of Zhejiang University:Humanities and Social Sciences

基　　金：国家社科基金项目(15CJL009)。

摘　　要：将关于中国区域资本回报率的研究从省级层面拓展到地级市层面,有助于厘清中国区域发展的"南北分化""一市独大"等问题。通过对321个地级以上城市2000—2018年数据的实证研究,发现城市间的资本回报率差距总体在扩大,但其中也出现了一些"俱乐部收敛"现象:从城市等级看,直辖市、副省级城市、省会城市、地级市分别出现了俱乐部收敛;从城市群看,京津冀、长三角、成渝、长江中游、中原、呼包鄂榆、兰西城市群各自出现了俱乐部收敛。进一步研究发现,资本有机构成的趋同是这些城市群体资本回报率收敛的一个重要原因。这意味着,在促进资源要素向资本回报率更高的中心城市、城市群集聚的同时,加强区域内、区域间科技合作,实现技术进步速度在更大范围内趋同,是改善中国整体资本回报率的关键。It is of great significance to research on the return of capital of prefectures and higher level cities in China, which helps clarify such phenomena as “north-south differentiation” and “one city dominants”. Based on the data of 321 prefectures and higher level cities in China during 2000-2018,three findings are obtained through empirical researches.Firstly, the return of capital of most prefectures and higher level cities in China has declined and their features are divergent from each other. From the perspective of city level, the municipalities directly under the Central Government have the highest overall return of capital. And the return of capital have declined with the decrease of city level in recent years, which means that the prefecture level cities have the lowest overall return of capital. From the perspective of city clusters, the return of capital of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, the Beibu Gulf and Harbin-Changchun have declined significantly in recent years, while the return of capital of the Yangtze River Delta, Chengdu-Chongqing, the Central Plains, the Guanzhong Plains, Hu-Bao-E-Yu and other clusters have gradually stabilized. At the same time, the return of capital of the Yangtze River Delta cluster has already bottomed out and rebounded.Secondly, the δ convergence of return of capital does not occur in prefectures and higher level cities in China. However, the club convergence of the return of capital occurs among the prefectures and higher level cities in China. From the perspective of city level, the club convergence of the return of capital occurs respectively in municipalities directly under the Central Government, provincial cities,sub-provincial cities, and prefecture level cities. From the perspective of city clusters, the club convergence of the return of capital occurs respectively in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, the Yangtze River Delta, Chengdu-Chongqing, the Middle Reaches of the Yangtze River, the Central Plains, Hu-Bao-E-Yu and Lan-Xi, while it does not occur in Guangdong-Hong Kong-Ma

关 键 词：区域发展 资本回报率 俱乐部收敛 地级市 城市群 资本有机构成 

分 类 号：F127[经济管理—世界经济]