基于复合系统协同度模型的中国农田水利供给和农业效益协同发展研究  

Collaborative Development of China’s Farmland Water Conservancy Supply and Agricultural Benefits Based on the Synergy Model of Compound System

作　　者：王亮[1] 李慧泉 Wang Liang;Li Huiquan(School of Finance and Economics,Tibet University,Lhasa 850000,Tibet;School of Business Administration,South China University of Technology,Guangzhou 510641,Guangdong)

机构地区：[1]西藏大学财经学院,西藏拉萨850000 [2]华南理工大学工商管理学院,广东广州510641

出　　处：《农业展望》2021年第12期70-76,共7页Agricultural Outlook

基　　金：西藏大学珠峰学科建设计划(zf21003004);西藏大学财经学院科研培育基金项目(ZDCYPY201701);国家社会科学基金项目(20CSH038)。

摘　　要：根据2004—2018年中国有关数据,设立农田水利供给系统中农业供水量、农村水利水电装机容量、水土流失治理、保护耕地以及效益系统中粮食产量、有效灌溉面积、除涝面积等指标,通过构建复合系统协同度模型具体分析中国农田水利供给和效益协同发展问题。研究发现,中国农田水利供给子系统有序度波动较大,协同作用不明显,效益子系统有序度相对平稳且在系统内部能够协同发展,而农田水利供给效益系统整体协同度较差,根据协同曲线趋势预测,未来中国农田水利供给效益复合系统协同发展状况不容乐观。基于此,应加大对堤防建设的投资力度以加大保护耕地力度,持续消除旱涝灾害隐患;短期增加农业用水量供给,提升农业用水质量,加大节水整治力度。Based on China’s relevant data from 2004 to 2018, indicators for the farmland water conservancy supply system, such as agricultural water supply system were established, rural water conservancy and hydropower installed capacity, soil erosion control, protection of arable land, and grain output, effective irrigation area, and waterlogging removal area in the benefit system, and China’s farmland water conservancy supply and benefit coordinated development issues were specifically analyzed through the construction of a composite system coordination degree model. The results showed that the order degree of China’s farmland water conservancy supply subsystem fluctuates greatly, and the synergy is not obvious, the order degree of the benefit subsystem is relatively stable and can develop in coordination within the system,while the overall coordination degree of farmland water conservancy supply benefit system is poor. According to the trend forecast of synergy curve, it is not optimistic for the coordinated development of China’s farmland water conservancy supply benefit compound system. Based on this, the investment in dike construction should be increased to protect arable land, and continue to eliminate hidden dangers of drought and flood disasters;increase the supply of agricultural water in the short term to improve the quality of agricultural water, and strengthen the renovation of water-saving.

关 键 词：复合系统协同度模型 农田水利供给 农业效益 协同发展 

分 类 号：F323.213[经济管理—产业经济] F323.211F224