基于能值-生态足迹模型的天津市农业生态系统可持续发展研究  

Application of Emergy-ecological Footprint Model in Tianjin Agricultural Ecosystem

作　　者：陈琳 高红梅 CHEN Lin;GAO Hongmei(College of Economics and Management,Tianjin Agricultural University,Tianjin 300384,China)

机构地区：[1]天津农学院经济管理学院,天津300384

出　　处：《天津农业科学》2022年第3期41-49,共9页Tianjin Agricultural Sciences

摘　　要：全国“两会”以来,发展绿色低碳循环经济对农业生产提出更高要求,“碳达峰”、“碳中和”成为热词。农业生产作为碳温室气体的主要来源,成为推进农业固碳减排可持续发展的关键环节。基于改进的能值-生态足迹模型,利用2010-2019年的天津农业产投数据,按时间序列分类编制人均能值生态足迹(Eef)和人均能值生态承载力(Eec)趋势图以及生态安全评价指标体系,对近十年天津农业投入产出与生态经济效益的可持续性进行定量分析,并针对农业碳达峰的可实现途径提出相关建议。研究结果表明:近十年天津市农业生产人均生态足迹基本维持在0.1507 hm^(2)·cap^(-1)上下浮动,人均生态承载力由2010年的0.0088 hm^(2)·cap^(-1)下降至2019年的0.0073 hm^(2)·cap^(-1),人均生态赤字严重但呈下降趋势,农业可持续能力逐渐恢复。生态足迹多样性指数状态平稳,生态经济协调系数趋近于1,农业生产安全不稳定。针对分析现状提出合理调用农业资源、重视发展理念培养及保障政策落实到位的建议,促使天津市农业经济、生态和社会系统和谐共生,促进天津市农业生态系统可持续发展。Since the National"Two Sessions",the development of a green and low-carbon circular economy has put forward higher requirements for agricultural production,and"carbon peak"and"carbon neutral"have become hot words.As the main source of carbon and greenhouse gases,agricultural production has become a key link in promoting the sustainable development of agricultural carbon sequestration and emission reduction.Based on the improved emergy-ecological footprint model,this paper used the Tianjin agricultural production investment data from 2010 to 2019 to compile per capita emergy ecological footprint(Eef)and per capita emergy ecological carrying capacity(Eec)trends and ecological.The safety evaluation index system conducted a quantitative analysis of the sustainability of Tianjin's agricultural input and output and ecological economic benefits in the past 10 years,and put forward relevant suggestions on the achievable ways of reaching the peak of agricultural carbon.The research results showed that the per capita ecological footprint of agricultural production in Tianjin had basically maintained at 0.1507 hm^(2)·cap^(-1) in the past ten years,and the per capita ecological carrying capacity had dropped from 0.0088 hm^(2)·cap^(-1) in 2010 to 0.0073 hm^(2)·cap^(-1) in 2019.The per capita ecological deficit was serious.However,there was a downward trend,and the sustainability of agriculture was gradually restored.The status of the ecological footprint diversity index was stable,the ecological and economic coordination coefficient approached 1,and the safety of agricultural production was unstable.Accorded to the analysis of the current situation,this paper put forward suggestions on rational allocation of agricultural resources,paid attention to the cultivation of development ideas and the implementation of security policies,so as to promoted the harmonious symbiosis of agricultural economy,ecology and social system in Tianjin and promoted the sustainable development of agricultural ecosystem in Tianjin.

关 键 词：能值-生态足迹模型 低碳农业 生态经济 碳达峰 

分 类 号：S181[农业科学—农业基础科学]