高维Copula函数的动态系统可靠性模型研究  

RESEARCH ON DYNAMIC SYSTEM RELIABILITY MODEL OF HIGH DIMENSIONAL COPULA FUNCTION

作　　者：冯钧 刘伟[1] 谭龙 李颐[1] FENG Jun;LIU Wei;TAN Long;LI Yi(Changchun Institute of Optics,Fine Mechanics and Physics,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Changchun 130033,China;University of Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100049,China)

机构地区：[1]中国科学院长春光学精密机械与物理研究所,长春130033 [2]中国科学院大学,北京100049

出　　处：《机械强度》2022年第1期86-94,共9页Journal of Mechanical Strength

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(61627819)资助~。

摘　　要：针对多失效相关的动态机械系统,利用Copula函数描述各单元之间失效模式的相关性,提出了一种具有多失效相关的动态机械系统可靠性模型,采用R-Vine Copula函数将复杂系统的可靠性问题转化为多个二维Pair Copula函数进行分析,利用最大生成树算法(MST)选定最优R-Vine结构,通过非参数核密度估计(KDE)对模型中的时变参数进行描述,并重点对机械系统中常见的串-并联系统(混联系统)进行建模分析,最后通过航天器开闭轴系的算例,验证该模型的有效性。Aiming at the dynamic mechanical system with multiple failure correlation,the copula function is used to describe the correlation of failure modes among units,and a reliability model of dynamic mechanical system with multiple failure correlations is proposed.The reliability problem of complex system is transformed into multiple two-dimensional pair copula functions by using R-Vine copula function.The optimal R-Vine structure is selected by using MST algorithm.The time-varying parameters in the model are described by nonparametric kernel density estimation(KDE).The common series parallel system(hybrid system)in mechanical system is modeled and analyzed.Finally,the effectiveness of the model is verified by an example of spacecraft open and close shafting.

关 键 词：R-Vine Copula函数 串-并联系统 非参数核密度估计(KDE) 可靠性 

分 类 号：V476.4[航空宇航科学与技术—飞行器设计] TH114[机械工程—机械设计及理论]