双碳目标下电力系统转型对产业部门影响评估——以粤港澳大湾区为例  

Impact assessment of power system transition on industrial sectors under dual carbon targets——Take the Greater Bay Area as an example

作　　者：许鸿伟 汪鹏[1] 任松彦[1] 林泽伟 张聪 赵黛青[1] XU Hong-Wei;WANG Peng;Ren Song-yan;Lin Ze-wei;ZHANG Cong;ZHAO Dai-qing(Key laboratory of Renewable Energy,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of New and Renewable Energy Research and Development,Guangzhou Institute of Energy Conversion,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Guangzhou 510640,China;University of Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100049,China;Guangdong Academy of Environmental Sciences,Guangzhou 510045,China)

机构地区：[1]中国科学院广州能源研究所,中国科学院可再生能源重点实验室,广东省新能源和可再生能源研究开发与应用重点实验室,广东广州510640 [2]中国科学院大学,北京100049 [3]广东省环境科学研究院,广东广州510045

出　　处：《中国环境科学》2022年第3期1435-1445,共11页China Environmental Science

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(71603248);广东科技计划(2017A050501060)。

摘　　要：为评估双碳目标路径实现对产业部门变化的影响,通过构建粤港澳大湾区动态CGE模型,设计基准情景、碳中和情景和强化碳中和情景,评估双碳目标约束下电力系统转型对不同等级电力依赖产业微观及宏观影响.结果表明:相比基准情景,碳中和情景电力部门2045年实现零碳电力,对大湾区经济发展和外购电占比带来一定程度影响,双碳限制作用将促进2050年能源消耗总量和碳排放量分别降低8.9%、67%,导致外购电力占比提高11%和GDP总量损失3.9%,但各产业部门的电能替代性、碳减排贡献性和增加值柔韧性存在差异,其中高等电力依赖部门电能替代性和碳减排潜力较小,同时经济受影响最小,每部门增加值损失约790亿元;中等电力和低等电力依赖部门的碳减排贡献较大,单个部门碳减排空间为400~700万t,每个部门平均经济损失为1000~3200亿元,经济发展受限较大,应推动向高电气化部门和清洁能源替代方向调整.相比碳中和情景,强化碳中和情景电力部门2040年更早实现零碳,绿电增长有利于湾区加强电力供应安全性和社会经济增长,2050年外购电力占比降低11%,促进GDP增长1.5%,增长来自电力部门和中高等电力依赖产业部门,同时促进各等级电力依赖部门电气化率提升.This paper develops an empirical assessment of low-carbon electricity transition in China, with specific emphasis on identifying its impact on the industrial sectors associated with three alternative scenarios-baseline, carbon neutrality(CN) and enhanced carbon neutrality(ECN). The case in point for this assessment is provided by Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area(thereafter, the Greater Bay Area). The analytical framework for this assessment is based on a dynamic CGE model. The results suggest that attaining net-zero electricity by 2045(CN scenario) is likely to reduce energy consumption and CO2 emissions by 8.9% and 67%,respectively, for the Greater Bay Area when compared with the baseline scenario. This impact would worsen the region’s reliance on electricity imports, adversely affecting its economic growth(3.9% less than the baseline scenario). This economic impact would,however, vary significantly across industrial sectors, reflecting their difference in terms of electric energy substitution, carbon emission reduction contribution and value-added flexibility. The impact on high electricity-dependent sectors is likely to be small(losses of about 79 billion yuan in sectoral value-added), when compared with those sectors that are less dependent on electricity(losses of 100 billion to 320 billion yuan in sectoral value-added). By implication, this suggests that policymakers should consider promoting electrification and fuel-switching in these sectors, in order to reduce the adverse impact of electricity decarbonisation on their future growth. The electricity sector in the Greater Bay Area will attain net-zero emissions by 2040 in the ECN scenario. The strong growth of local renewable generation in this scenario could help reduce the region’s reliance on electricity imports(11% less than the CN scenario), contributing to energy security and socio-economic development(1.5% higher than the CN scenario). This development would particularly benefit industrial sectors that are highly dependent on electrici

关 键 词：粤港澳大湾区 混合动态CGE 电力系统转型 双碳目标 产业部门 

分 类 号：X321[环境科学与工程—环境工程]