粤港澳区域知识溢出与经济增长  

Regional Knowledge Spillover and Economic Growth in Guangdong,Hong Kong and Macao

作　　者：朱丰毅 桂文林[1] Zhu Fengyi;Gui Wenlin(School of Economics,Jinan University)

机构地区：[1]暨南大学经济学院

出　　处：《数量经济技术经济研究》2022年第3期44-65,共22页Journal of Quantitative & Technological Economics

基　　金：国家哲学社会科学基金项目“时间序列分解与中国经济下行压力下的风险识别及预警研究”(16BJY014)的资助。

摘　　要：研究目标:从理论和实证两方面研究异质的知识溢出如何产生经济空间收敛现象以及如何影响区域经济协调增长。研究方法:理论上,基于包含异质的知识吸收能力的Ertur Koch空间增广Solow模型分析知识吸收能力对经济协调增长的影响。实证上,以粤港澳大湾区为研究对象,使用1995~2018年的实际人均GDP增长率和专利引用数据,采用贝叶斯层次空间Durbin模型和M H Gibbs混合抽样算法估计空间收敛方程。研究发现:理论上,知识溢出导致经济空间收敛,提高知识吸收能力能提升经济增长潜力。知识吸收能力不均衡会扩大地区间经济差距,不利于区域协调增长。从其他地区获得的知识溢出越多,本地经济增长过程中获得的空间溢出收益越大。实证研究发现,粤港澳大湾区的经济增长存在空间收敛。各市在经济增长过程中获得的空间溢出收益存在很大的异质性,中心城市要强于边缘城市,珠三角城市整体上要强于港澳。研究创新:理论模型中加入了异质的知识吸收能力,突出了吸收能力的均衡性对于地区经济协调增长的重要性。在实证研究中采用变系数空间计量模型,从而能够识别知识溢出对经济空间收敛的影响。充分利用了地理信息和技术交流信息,构造复合空间权重矩阵。研究价值:揭示了知识溢出能否促进区域经济协调增长取决于区域间知识吸收能力是否均衡。本文就如何促进粤港澳大湾区长期经济协调增长和创新合作提出相关政策建议。Research Objectives:This paper studied how heterogeneous knowledge spillover causes spatially economic convergence and affects regional coordinated economic growth,from both theoretical and empirical aspects.Research Methods:Theoretically,based on the Ertur Koch spatially augmented Solow model including heterogeneous knowledge absorptive capacity,we analyzed how the knowledge absorptive capacity affects the coordinated economic growth.Empirically,based on the data of real GDP per capita and patent citation in Guangdong Hong Kong Macao Greater Bay Area from 1995 to 2018,this paper adopted the model specification of the Bayesian hierarchical spatial Durbin model and used M H Gibbs mixed sampling algorithm to estimate spatial convergence equation.Research Findings:Theoretically,knowledge spillover will result in spatially economic convergence,so the improvement of knowledge absorptive capacity can prompt unlocking growth potential,but that the unbalanced spatial distribution of this capacity will enlarge the economic development gap among regions,which is unfavorable for the achievement of coordinated growth.The more knowledge spillover a region absorbed from other regions in Greater Bay Area,the stronger economic spatial spillover benefit it will recieve.Through empirical study,We found that there existed spatial convergence of economy among cities in Guangdong Hong Kong Macao Greater Bay Area.Each city’s economic growth received the heterogeneous benefit of spatial spillover from surrounding cities.The spatial spillover that central cities received was stronger than peripheral cities,and spillover that Pearl River Delta cities received was stronger than Hong Kong and Macao.Research Innovations:Heterogeneous knowledge absorptive capacity is introduced into the theoretical model,which highlights the importance of the balance of absorptive capacity for the coordinated growth of regional economy.In the empirical study,the varying coefficient spatial econometric model is used to identify the impact of knowledge spill

关 键 词：知识溢出 空间收敛 经济协调增长 粤港澳大湾区 贝叶斯层次空间 Durbin模型 

分 类 号：F061.5[经济管理—政治经济学]