优惠贸易协定对出口二元边际的异质性影响——基于2002-2018年BACI数据库的数据分析  

The Heterogeneous Impact of Preferential Trade Agreements on the Export Binary Margin:Data Analysis Based on BACI Database form 2002-2018

作　　者：刘德学[1] 钱馨蓓 黄亮雄 LIU De-xue;QIAN Xin-bei;HUANG Liang-xiong(College of Economics, Jinan University, Guangzhou 510632,China;School of Economics and Finance, South China University of Technology, Guangzhou 510006, China)

机构地区：[1]暨南大学经济学院,广州510632 [2]华南理工大学经济与金融学院,广州510006

出　　处：《商业研究》2022年第1期43-55,共13页Commercial Research

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目,项目编号:15ZDA018,17ZD047;广州市哲学社会科学规划项目,项目编号:2021GZYB01;广东省软科学项目,项目编号:2018B070714013。

摘　　要：本文匹配2002-2018年BACI数据库的HS-6分位5219种产品152个国家(地区)之间的双边贸易及WTO数据库的优惠贸易协定大样本数据,采用泊松拟极大似然估计技术,实证检验优惠贸易协定对出口二元边际的异质性影响。结果表明:签订及深化优惠贸易协定均能显著促进出口的集约边际和广延边际,且对集约边际的效应大于广延边际。该影响效应存在着条款、国别以及产品三维度的异质性。协定条款中的边界深度对集约边际和广延边际都有显著的促进作用,而边界后深度只对集约边际有促进作用而对广延边际没有产生影响。从不同类型的国别贸易上看,签订优惠贸易协定对发达国家和发展中国家均为帕累托改进,但对不同类型国家出口二元边际的影响存在异质性。从产品层面上看,“北北型”“南北型”和“南南型”优惠贸易协定对于同质化和差异化产品以及不同技术密集度的产品的出口二元边际的影响也存在异质性。本文为不同国家间签订恰当的贸易协定和选择合适的缔约国提供了实证支持和政策启示。By matching the bilateral trade data between 152 countries(regions)with HS-6 quantile of 5219 products in BACI database from 2002 to 2018 and the preferential trade agreements data from WTO database,this paper empirically tested the heterogeneity of preferential trade agreements on the export binary margin by using Poisson Pseudo Maximum likelihood regression.The results show that the signing and deepening of preferential trade agreements can significantly promote the intensive margin and the extensive margin of exports,and the effect on the intensive margin is greater than the extensive margin.There are three-dimensional heterogeneity in terms of terms,countries and products.The border depth in the terms of the agreement significantly promotes both the intensive margin and the extensive margin,while the behind border depth only promotes the intensive margin,but has no effect on the extensive margin.From the perspective of different types of country trade,the signing of preferential trade agreement has a Pareto improvement for both developed and developing countries,but the impact on the export binary margin of different types of countries is heterogeneous.From the product level,the effects of the“North-North”,“North-South”and“South-South”preferential trade agreements on the export binary margin of homogeneous and differentiated products and products with different technology intensity are also heterogeneous.This paper provides empirical support and policy implications for different countries to sign appropriate trade agreements and select appropriate contracting countries.

关 键 词：优惠贸易协定 集约边际 广延边际 异质性检验 全球数据 

分 类 号：F744[经济管理—国际贸易]